Financial Evaluation And Risk Analysis Of XD Figs Planting Project With BOT Mode

Under the new situation,the national transfer payment of a large number of agricultural project funds to provide adequate financial support for the local garicultural economic development.Due to the long span of agricultural investment period,the yield is slow,the risk is relatively large.After the capital investment,in the case of no improvement in the project operation,once it is the encounter weather,pest or other risk factors,it is likely to lead to project failure.Therefore it must be in the early stage of scientific analysis of the project,the focus of the project in the financial,before the implementation of the balance of the focus on risk.This paper is supported by the local BOT mode,taking the XD fig planting project as an example,from the perspective of local government functions,Budget,calculation and evaluation of project financial indicators by using the theory and knowledge of business administration.Focus on the use of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for quantitative evaluation of risk points.To reduce agricultural BOT projects decision-making subjectivity and arbitrariness and blindness,make agricultural decision-making more scientific and systematic,the fig transfer of the project as a whole can still play a better economic benefit and reduce risk.This case can analyze to Neijiang city in the implementation of other agricultural projects,and provide reference for project decision.First of all,this paper reviews the theory and knowledge of project financial evaluation and risk analysis;and the background,environment,planting technology,financial evaluation and risk analysis of XD fig project were analyzed.Again,through field visits,market research to the fig peer marketing,product positioning,sales price,sales and other aspects of data collection,analysis,processing,to help predict the relevant financial data of the project.Based on the data of the previous data,the calculation of the net present value of the project,the internal rate of return,the static and dynamic payback period,the investment profit margin and other financial indicators are calculated and analyzed.Finally,the feasibility of the overall financial evaluation is obtained.Through expert questionnaire statistics,access to the county and other regional agricultural success or failure case,the risk points faced by the fig planting.Risk identification,expert questionnaire through the construction level of grade one and two grade risk points,comparison judgment matrix is built that influence weights and using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for all the risk weight calculation,obtains the project total risk level.And the risk level is relatively low Finally,and it can be able to clearly understand the impact of the main risk of the project.Finally,according to the top ten risks,give detailed countermeasures,risk response strategies to reduce the risk of other risks.