Research On Large-scale Rice-plant Farmer' Agricultural Technology Diffusion Under Uncertainty

Agricultural technology diffusion decision is a typical problem which is under uncertainty, so incorporate uncertainty into farmers' economic activity is inevitable during the production process. This research based on Large-scale Rice-plant Farmer' Production Function and establish a theory model of agricultural technology diffusion decision. The theory model can be divided into two-stage approach: firstly, the optimal input of fertilizer is not affected by risk since the ratio of marginal risk effects of fertilizers and land scale is independent of risk; the second stage decision relates to the risk(such as land circulation and risk attitudes) have an impact. The theory model also suggests that Large-scale Rice-plant Farmer can be divided into three kind of different type based on the difference level of risk appetite.Multiple logistic regression econometric model and Jiangxi province's 1169Large-scale Rice-plant Farmer samples from field survey is used in this paper to empirical the theory mode. Through empirical analysis, it demonstrated that the higher risk preference of a Large-scale Rice-plant Farmer, the larger proportion of him using modern agricultural technology accounted for total arable land or vice versa. There are similarities and differences Effects on three major types Large-scale Rice-plant Farmer agricultural technology diffusion factors are differences:(1) Risk loving Large-scale Rice-plant Farmer make agricultural technology diffusion decision affect by risk preference(time of technology application), contracting type, rental rate, agriculture infrastructure, farm location, entire evaluation of policy.(2) Risk aversion Large-scale Rice-plant Farmer make agricultural technology diffusion decision affect by risk preference(time of technology application), rental rate, contracting type, rental term, neighborhood relationship and the effect of adoption technology.(3) Risk neutral Large-scale Rice-plant Farmer make agricultural technology diffusion decision affect by risk preference(time of technology application), rental rate, agricultural labors, agriculture infrastructure, neighborhood relationship and the effect of adoption technology and entire evaluation of policy.(4) And the rental rate is another vital factor. The higher rental rate of renting arable land, the larger proportion of him using modern agricultural technology accounted for total arable land in all three type farmers.