| With the economic development, the private car ownership of China is rapidly growing. By the end of 2014, the number of civilian car ownership reached 14,598.11 million, of which the private car ownership reached 12,339.36 million. Even though the car has positive effect on expanding the scope of activities of residents and improving people's living standards, it also causes serious traffic problems and social problems. Currently, the large and middle-sized cities of China have serious problems on road congestion, parking, traffic accident and automobile exhaust. The problems caused by cars in China have become an outstanding problem that restricts the economic and social development.The study of the factors influencing the private car ownership in China can not only predict car ownership and traffic demand, but also be helpful to predict Auto sales, oil demand and fuel tax. Therefore, it's important to study the factors influencing the private car ownership in China.Influencing factors of private car ownership in China were investigated by adopting data in 32 provincial capital cities from 2001 to 2013. The dependent variable is the natural logarithm form Private Car ownership for each city. Aiming to capture the individual effects (heterogeneity), the fixed and random effect models were employed and compared, in which 8 explanatory variables were selected include economic characteristics, urban characteristics and transportation characteristics. After the heteroscedasticity test, serial correlation test and cross-sectional test, establish the model with STATA and use the Hausman test to choose the proper model.The study shows:(1)the factors are different in different cities;(2) the Economic property is the dominant factor;(3)the influence of the population density is related to city size and the urbanization rate has a significant negative impact on the private car ownership;(4) the factors related Transport infrastructure have a positive effect. |
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