Research On The Influence Of The Inflation Uncertainty And Industrial Hollowing Out On Economic Fluctuation

Inflation uncertainty and industrial hollowing out are ubiquitous phenomenon in the social economic developed, inflation uncertainty will influence the economic agent behavior decision, which is not only affect the efficient allocation of resources, but also affect the smooth development of the economy. An increase in the degree of the industrial hollowing out will weaker economic foundation, the economic system of anti-risk ability is weak, by unexpected shocks, will lead to greater economic fluctuation. In recent years, America's subprime crisis and the debt crisis in Europe are closely related with the weak real economy foundation. Based on this background, we use the global 105 countries during 1980-2013 data, in-depth study the relationship among the inflation uncertainty, industrial hollowing out and economic fluctuation, which has an important significance on theoretical and realistic.First of all, we review the literature about relationship among inflation uncertainty, industrial hollowing out and the economic fluctuations, and then analyze the internal mechanism of inflation uncertainty, industrial hollowing out on economic fluctuation, based on this, uses the empirical test the relationship among the inflation uncertainty, industrial hollowing out and the economic fluctuation. Theoretical analysis shows that inflation uncertainty mainly affect the producer investment and consumer spending, which affect the economic fluctuation; Inflation uncertainty mainly affect the enterprise production cost and asset prices to affect the substantive assets investment behavior and investment, so affect the industrial hollowing out; Industrial hollowing out mainly by capital from the real economy, capital flow to the virtual economy and capital outflows to affect the economic fluctuation. Then found that the global inflation uncertainty is low in recent years, the degree of industrial hollowing out continuous rising, economic fluctuation is bigger; Further analysis found that inflation uncertainty degree, industrial hollowing out degree and economic fluctuation correlation degree is higher, especially in developed countries high inflation uncertainty is closely associated with severe economic fluctuations. Empirical analysis found that the enlarge inflation uncertainty degree can significantly increase a country's economic fluctuation, also, the degree of industrial hollowing out improve will also significantly increased the economic fluctuations. In addition, under-the interaction of inflation uncertainty and industrial hollowing out will further increased the economic fluctuations. Further investigation found that in different income level countries and different inflation uncertainty conditions this conclusion shows the characteristics of robustness.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, we put forward the policy implication as follows:properly identify sources of inflation uncertainty; implementating inflation targeting; manage inflation expectations; laying solid foundation of the real economy to slow down economic fluctuation; creating a sound institutional environment for the entity economy development; scientific planning of the entity industry layout, through the above measures, in order to reduce the degree of inflation uncertainty and industrial hollowing out, in turn, slow down the economic fluctuation.