Research On Economic Fluctuation On The China Industrial Structure Evolution

The relationship between social economic development and the adjustment of industrial structure are complementary, which are unified in the law of development of human society. In general, the economic society develop regularly from low-level slavery to advanced capitalist system to more advanced socialist system, which promotes the industrial structure adjust and pushes industrial structure from junior to senior evolution. But the economic development is not going smoothly and the twists and turns of. In different stages of economic fluctuations, economic fluctuations influences on the direction and degree of industrial structure may have a lot of difference, which will lead to the transformation of industrial structure also showed different trends. Since the1929outbreak of the global economic crisis, the research on relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change is emerged in an endless stream. At the same time, wide domestic scholars involved in this field. But it focuses on the utility of industrial structure change to economic cycle fluctuation. And it is relatively little literature to research the influence of economic cycle fluctuation to industrial structure change. Therefore, this paper focuses on the influence of economic cycle fluctuation to industrial structure change which has the extremely vital significance.This paper is based on the western economics, and regards the economic cycle fluctuation theory and the industrial structure evolution theory as the scientific guidance. At the same time, based on absorbing and learning from previous related research, and dynamiting analysis of the impact of China’s economic expansion and contraction to industrial structure change. In the study, Firstly using Bayesian SETAR models into dividing China’s economic cycle. And use Granger causality test methods to judge the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. The results show that Bias SETAR method can effectively identify the expansion and contraction volatility stage of china’s economic. At the same time, Granger causality test also proved that the economic cycle fluctuation is the reason of the change of our industrial structure change. Then the paper analyzes the influence of economic cycle fluctuation upon industrial structure changes. And further analysis the effect of economic cycle fluctuation on every industry or sector change in three industrial change. Through empirical analysis, draw the following conclusion:China’s economic cycle fluctuation is the impetus to industrial structure evolution of rationalization and advanced; the economic expansion and contraction phases on the direction and degree of change in industrial structure and industrial structure are not the same, economic expansion has greater influence on fisheries, animal husbandry, animal husbandry, metallurgical industry, chemical industry, petroleum industry, building materials industry, construction industry, wholesale and retail, financial industry, real estate industry. In the periods of economic contraction, the influence of agriculture, forestry, electric power industry, coal industry, machinery industry, textile industry and other industries affected by the economic downturn is obvious.