An Empirical Research On Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On The Behavior Of Listed Companies

After the financial crisis in 2008,governments in various countries need to stimulate the domestic economy through the regulation of economic policies to reduce the impact of the financial crisis,and this frequent regulation has caused the deviation of economic entities from expectations and reality.Policy uncertainty has risen.China could not be an exception.China is in the transition period of "main contradiction",and it can be expected that many changes will occur in economic policies.The economic policies issued by the government and regulatory agencies often have an impact on the environment of the company's operation.Meanwhile,the timing of the policy release,the content of the policy,the impact of the policies and other uncertainties that accompany the promulgation of economic policies have also attracted the attention of many entrepreneurs.In this context,more and more scholars are studying how enterprises will adjust their behaviors under the increase of economic policy uncertainty.In order to investigate how China's economic policy uncertainty affects corporate behavior,this paper uses the EPU index constructed by Baker et al.as the measurement index of economic policy uncertainty.The A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in 2003-2018 are selected as research samples,and the panel model was used to analyze how the investment and financing behavior of enterprises would be affected.This paper further selects two representative industries: the Internet industry and the energy industry,and analyzes the industry differences in this impact.Then analyze the transmission effect of the impact between the enterprise investment level and the financing level,and further study whether there is a threshold effect on the impact of the enterprise's investment and financing behavior.Finally,the paper explores the possible impacts of other corporate actions.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The increase in economic policy uncertainty will have a negative effect on corporate investment behavior and financing behavior.And this negative effect is different in different industries: for investment behavior,energy industry enterprises are more negatively affected by the level of economic policy uncertainty than other companies;while Internet industry enterprises are less negative than others.Other companies.For financing activities,energy industry companies are more negatively affected than other companies;the Internet industry is also the same.(2)The negative effects of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment behavior are partly achieved through channels that inhibit corporate financing.Enterprises' access to external investment is an important source of funds for maintaining their operations and investment.The rising uncertainty of economic policies will have a negative effect on corporate financing,resulting in a shortage of corporate funds,which will reduce investment.(3)There is a threshold effect on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment and financing behavior.When the economic policy uncertainty index is lower than 98.4801,the uncertainty brings opportunities for the enterprise,which will promote the investment and financing of the enterprise without negative impact;when the economic policy uncertainty rises to the range of 98.4801~99.7205 Uncertainty has begun to curb corporate investment behavior but has not yet had a negative impact on financing behavior;when economic policy further rises above 99.7205,economic policy uncertainty will simultaneously inhibit corporate investment and financing behavior.(4)Economic policy uncertainty will also have an impact on other corporate actions,such as corporate executives' reductions.Based on the research and conclusions of this paper,we put forward the following suggestions:(1)When the government issues some new economic policies,it is necessary to consider not only the impact of the policy itself on the microeconomic entities,but also the potential impact of the uncertainty caused by the expected and actual differences between economic entities.(2)The government should try to control the economic policy uncertainty within the range that will not have a negative effect on the investment and financing of enterprises,and enncourage enterprises to actively carry out investment and financing activities through moderate uncertainty.(3)The government should also take into account the differences between industries when controlling economic policy uncertainty.(4)In order to weaken the transmission of negative effects between investment and financing,the government may consider broadening the financing channels and methods of enterprises to alleviate the financing difficulties caused by the bank's sharp contraction of credit exposure due to the uncertainty.