The Analysis Based On ARIMA Model Of Port Transportation Capacity Of Liaoning Province

In recent years, ports in the global trade gradually occupies an indispensable position in the logistics system, the research on port logistics has developed into the inevitable trend in logistics discipline. Almost all the import and export trade activities in coastal areas are bearing by the port logistics transport. Therefore the development of port transport capacity greatly affects the regional development of import and export trade. Prime minister Li Keqiang pointed out in the central meeting at the end of last year that integrated to the One Belt And One Road(OBOR) strategy actively and to the revitalization of the northeast regional economic and trade development. As an important part of the northeast old industrial base and the “OBOR” strategic planning, research on the development and construction of Liaoning port group is becoming an important issue again.Liaoning port group is located in the northeast Asia economic hinterland. It has more than one hundred routes, covering more than three hundred area, carrying on almost all the northeast province of import and export of foreign trade transportation work. Ports, however, there are some problems, including share the same supply of goods, the division of labor is not clear, vicious competition, and the total port capacity and economic development is out of balance. These problems leading to the development of port transport capacity in Liaoning province lags behind the development of import and export trade.This article is based on the strategy of "OBOR" background, expounding the current situation of the development of ports in liaoning province. Based on the theory of port transportation, using multiple regression equation and Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA) to predict the port transport demand. With the method of Exponential Smoothing forecasts port cargo bearing capacity. Compared to the plans for the development of the port in government document, thus draw the conclusion that port logistics of Liaoning province has greater service demand in the future, growth is obvious. The need for port transportation have sufficient market in Liaoning province that transport capacity has a certain space for developing.