Research On The Financial Risk Assessment Of Listed SMEs Based On VAR

Shenzhen Stock Exchange established a SME(Small and Medium Enterprises)board in 2004.As the SME Board was established in the international market,it can more easily get the funds required for their production and management to a certain extent.SMEs enjoyed the convenience of public financing as well as faced with huge financial risks.Compared with the large and medium enterprises,SMEs are less able to resist risks while their credit and financial risks are relatively high.Therefore,it is very important to evaluate the financial risks for the healthy development of listed SMEs.In this paper,some listed SMEs,as the research object,are combined with VAR risk value to build a financial risk evaluation model of SMEs based on VAR for the guidance of forecasting financial condition of SMEs.This paper firstly summarizes the basic theory of the financial risk evaluation of listed SMEs,then it uses cluster analysis method to select the financial risk evaluation model for listed SMEs.Secondly,it collects the daily stock closing price of the SMEs in the last two years,and uses of Monte Carlo simulation method to calculate the VAR value of the SMEs through normal distribution test.Finally,it collects the financial index data from 2013 to 2014 through the empirical analysis of the company's financial indicators,and then uses the factor analysis method to calculate the comprehensive score of each company,and selects the Logistic regression model to evaluate efficiency of the finance-risk model in listed SMEs based on VAR.