A Research On The Pre-warning Indicator System To The Regional Financial Risks

At present, all researches on regional financial risks are limited to the study of regional banking risks, and in many articles they only analyze the pre-warning indicator system to the regional banking instead of the pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks. Although in all regions, banking is the leading sheep of the finance industry, either on the scale or on the importance, it is not thorough to only involve risks of banking and overlook risks of other financial organizations. Therefore, based on the research results of scholars in china and abroad, we will, in this thesis, set up pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks, including banking, securities and insurance, which is important both in theory and in practice.The pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks is made up of forms and indicators which indicate the situation, the sign, the source and the changing tend of risks. It is a systematic project to set up a pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks; it involves the choosing of indicators, the division of the critical points and the establishment of pre-warning areas and the weight of indicators.In this thesis, we will summarize the documents of about the pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks and analyze the theory basis of setting up the pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks and resume the basic principle of setting up the pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks. The thesis will seek the source of pre-warning, analyze the sign of risks and choose 28 indicators in 4 subsystems—regional banking, regional insurance, regional securities and regional economic environment; we will, based on the well- recognized pre-warning value of all indicators in china and abroad, divide the critical points, calculate the weight of all indicators with universal analytic hierarchy process and go on a consistent test to fix the overall weight of all indicators. In the thesis, we will set up pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks which is a hierarchy of many indicators including regional banking, regional insurance, regional securities and regional economic environment, in order to measure quantitatively the risks of regional finance and issue the pre-warning indication. Finally, this thesis will, using a certain region in Hunan Province as the object of study, carry out a case analysis to the appliance to the pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks. According to the analysis of the total evaluation, we think, the appliance to the pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks at a certain region in Hunan Province is successful as a whole. This will prove that it has some practical value to set up the pre-warning indicator system to the regional financial risks.