Research On Association Between Shanghai Container Freight Index And Export Trade

With the global economic integration and international division of labor has speeded up the process, international trade has developed rapidly. International Logistics is an important international medium of goods transport, is the bridge between the various countries. International Logistics and International Trade closely linked. They promote and influence each other. With the development of international trade, the importance of international logistics becomes clear. The important trading nations in the word pay more and more attention to the cooperation and the development of international logistics. After joining the WTO, the total value of Chinese deals grew rapidly, the scale of international trade grow with the very fast speed and international logistics also got further development. In 2013 October, the general secretary Xi Jinping put forward the development strategy of construction in twenty-first Century of the "Marine Silk Road". It is a new opportunity for the construction of China’s shipping market. At the same time, it also submit the new request to our shipping industry.This paper studies the correlativity analysis of freight rate and foreign trade through freight index. With Shanghai’s container shipping market as the research object, building the prototype of VAR with Shanghai container freight index and export trade. Based on the estimation results of VAR model, we use the impulse response function and Grainger Granger causality test method to analysis the association between Shanghai container freight index and export trade. The analysis results show that, there is a negative correlation between exports and freight rate in SCFI comprehensive freight index, American route, Australia route, West Africa route and South Africa route. Exports of European route, the Persian Gulf route and South Korea route has a negative effect for freight index, but the impact on exports of freight index was not significant. Southeast Asia route and Taiwan route freight index has a negative effect on exports, but the impact of exports on freight rate is not significant. Interaction between the two variables is not significant in South America route and Hong Kong route. Japan route’s export has positive effect to the freight index, but the freight index was not significant effects on exports. This paper analyses the relationship of freight index and exports in each of the routes. Finally, the paper gives some suggestions for improving China’s shipping industry. The shipping company should allocate capacity and adjust marketing strategy according to the characteristics of route, and develop business strategy according to the national policy tendency. Should be calculate the freight index scientifically, give full play to the function of price index.This paper studied the correlation of Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and Export. The results showed that the freight index closely related to export trade in container transport market of Shanghai. There are different links between freight index and export trade in different routes. And, according to the conclusions of empirical analysis, puts forward suggestions on the construction of shipping companies and shipping market. Taking Shanghai export container market as an example, bring attention to the association between freight index and export trade on our overall shipping market. Thus, the conclusion has important significance to enhance the market competitiveness of our shipping and promote the development of China’s shipping industry. What’s more, it has a positive effect on the development strategy of construction of twenty-first Century "Marine Silk road".