Index Research Of Export Trade Diffused By Financial Crisis

The financial crisis spread and diffused between the different countries and the differentregions, causing the chain reaction between countries and regions.In the past thirty years, thedomain of export trade of China developed rapidly. Especially the fastest development is in2005,2006(before the outbreak of the financial crisis), but it began to decline in2007(afterthe outbreak of the financial crisis). What is said that the domain of export trade of China isaffected more seriously by the financial crisis. Therefore we need to analysis different effectson China’s export trade spread by the financial crisis from different angle of the transmissionchannels. Then, from the overall, we evaluate the influence degree on China’s export tradediffused by the international financial crisis.In the previous research foundation, this article is from the manifestation of Americanfinancial crisis to establish a rationally designed and simply evaluated index system of theexport trade. Then we determine the scope of a corresponding index，showing the influencedegree on China’s export trade diffused by the international financial crisis. The aim is toprovide the scientific basis for mitigating the impact of financial crisis. First, this articledescribes theory of the financial crisis diffusion and the theory of transmission mechanism bythe financial crisis affecting China trade. Second, it combs the building of an index system,methods to analysis index and methods of selecting index weights. Then, we use time seriesanalysis from a quantitative point of view to verify the impact of the financial crisis onChina’s export trade. As the empirical basis, selecting the12indicators in four aspects fromexchange, finance, foreign direct investment and the expected，we constructed all levels ofindex of export trade spread by the financial crisis. And for the three indicators, we usesprincipal component analysis to construct the exchange rate market index, financial marketindices, foreign direct investment market index and the expected market index. Then for thetwo indicators, we use neural network systems approach for the weight to construct exportindex spread of the financial crisis. Next we use the threshold method to determine the levelof exports affected by the financial crisis. Finally, in the different aspects of our export trade,we put forward countermeasures and suggestions to deal with the financial crisis...