China computer software industry is meeting a rapid progress with some potential problems,especially project management problems.The key factor to cause these project management problems is the out-of-control on the three aspects: scope,cost and schedule.In fact,these three aspects are determined by productivity of computer software project team.Unfortunately,how to estimate this productivity is up in the air.The author with rich PM experience analyzes the results of the research of other peoples in this paper.First,a definition of productivity of computer software project team is given.Based on it,a logical business model is built using the PM practice from GAO company.Then,a BPN(Back Propagation Network)model is built in MATLAB using the data from 30 computer software projects in GAO company.Other five sets of data are used to validate the model to test if it can be used to forecast the productivity of a new computer software team.Finally,a procedure is given for forecasting.Becausethe business model and BPN model are built for GAO company,they can’t be used by other computer software companies.But the method used in this paper to build these models can be reused by other companies. |