Research And Implementation Of Debris Flow Prediction Algorithm Based On Efficacy Coefficient Method

With the arrival of the era of Internet and the big data,almost all areas of disasters prevention are facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities,especially in the field of geological hazards.Mud-rock flow,as one of the most common geological disasters,which had aroused more and more extensive attention in China and even in the whole world.About the prediction of mud-rock flow,a prediction model based on the efficacy coefficient method has been proposed by predecessors,which greatly improves the accuracy and scientificalness of the predicted results.However,the present prediction model based on the efficacy coefficient method can't obtain the accurate results,and the number of index factors is less and not fully.In view of these two questions,this paper attempts to change the index factor model on the basis of predecessors,thus to establish a forewarning model of mud-rock flow and achieve a forewarning information system based on the efficacy coefficient method.The main contents of this thesis are as follows.About the question that the number of index factors of mud-rock flow is less and not fully and its predicted results are not accurate enough,the thesis comes up with a improved index hierarchy model and constructs a completely new prediction model of mud-rock flow based on the efficacy coefficient method.The prediction model firstly constructs a new index hierarchy model on the basis of the index factors of previous research and the index factors newly proposed by experts.Then,through many experts'reviews and authoritative literature references,the thesis gives a comprehensive score value,a satisfaction index value and a forewarning limit value of the prediction index.Finally,the thesis calculates the index hierarchy model by the improved analytic hierarchy process,thus to obtain a system weight matrix and obtain the efficacy value of each index factor by the function coefficient function,at the same time,to obtain the corresponding forewarning grade by combining the given forewarning limit value.According to the completely new prediction model of mud-rock flow,the thesis designed and achieved a mud-rock flow forewarning information management system.The system includes five modules,they are background operation management,foreground display,cloud platform,ArcGIS and data collection layer.The system test shows that the system can realize the forewarning function according to the data transmitted from the field and the prediction algorithm model,and it also shows that both the index hierarchy model and prediction model given in this thesis can obtain more accurate prediction results.