| The data from the fifth census in 2000 showed that the fertility rate had dropped to 1.22,and the sixth census in 2010 had dropped to a staggering 1.18 level.It is clear that the adjustment of the full-fledged two-childbirth policy that opened from the second-year childbirth in the 18 th Central Committee to the 1st of January 2016 is imminent,but the fertility policy that began to relax in 2014 did not significantly increase the fertility rate.China has entered a serious declining birthrate phase,which will be accompanied by a more severe labor shortage,which seriously threatens China's economic growth.It is of theoretical and practical significance to study how the adjustment of birth policy affects the labor shortage.This issue will also directly affect the change in per capita income and savings rate.These two factors are important indicators of economic growth.This paper starts with the third-phase OLG model,and constructs the theoretical model through basic assumptions,representative behavioral decision-making,enterprise,market clearing,and the government's five parts.The basic assumptions are based on the benchmark assumptions of Diamond's two-phase model and introduced in the production function."Capital-skill complementarity." Subsequent comparative static analysis will mainly compare the endogenous optimal birth and savings rates of skilled workers and non-skilled workers,and how the ratio of skilled workers to all workers will change.Finally,the restriction on the birth policy will be added to determine the number of endogenous births.The dynamic change in savings rates.Based on the construction of the theoretical model and comparative static analysis,numerical model solving and policy simulation were performed.There were 7 exogenous variables and 11 endogenous variables in the model.The seven exogenous variables are the proportion of government taxation,the time taken to take care of children,the time taken to learn from non-skilled workers to skilled workers,the weight of the utility of the number of children in the utility function,and the elasticity of capital output in the production function.The contribution of non-skilled workers in the production of weights,total factor productivity.These seven exogenous variables need to be introduced to the calibration of relevant data to obtain 11 endogenous variables,which are the proportion of skilled workers in the total number of workers,from holding savings in the current period to the next interest rate factor,to skilled workers and unskilled workers.Biochemical childbirth numbers,savings in endogenous savings for skilled and unskilled workers' families,wages for skilled and unskilled workers,per capita capital,per capita savings,and per capita income.Under the existing data model,the author added the limitation of birth control policy to simulate the comparison of the 11 endogenous variable values under the three fertility policies.The birth policy is the family planning policy,the comprehensive two-child policy,and the abandonment of birth restriction,through 11 Compared with the value of endogenous variables,the author draws the conclusion that the comprehensive two-child policy has the highest per capita savings and per capita income compared with the family planning policy and policy of abandoning birth restrictions,while per capita savings and per capita income are the judgment of the economy.Two important factors of the growth situation,so I venture to think that a full two-child is more suitable for economic growth.On this basis,the author studied the current situation of per capita capital in China,simulated the two fertility policies of comprehensive two-child and abandon birth restriction,and came to the conclusion that under the current national conditions,the per capita savings and per capita income of the full-fledged two-child are higher than abandonment.Fertility restrictions on fertility policy.Therefore,I believe that the existing comprehensive twochild policy is appropriate. |
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