| Since 2000,with the rapid development of China’s economy,population growth has slowed down,fertility rates have continued to fall below replacement levels,population problems such as aging have become increasingly serious,and fundamental changes have taken place in China’s population structure.The fertility rate is the basis for influencing the population structure and the key to solving population problems.The state has actively adjusted its fertility policy and tried to increase the fertility rate,but the effect was very weak.This article first uses stata to conduct empirical research on panel data from 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2000 to 2017,and analyzes factors affecting birth rate through system GMM regression.It is concluded that the fertility policy has a limited effect on improving the birth rate,especially the effect of the universal two-child policy is not great;the birth rate is determined comprehensively by multiple variables,among which the house price level,income level,and average education level are the three main variables that affect the birth rate.The regression coefficients of house price level and average education level are both negative,which is not conducive to the increase of the birth rate;while the increase of income level has a promoting effect on the birth rate;the dependency ratio,family size,and urban-rural income gap are positively related to the birth rate.Secondly,based on the research on the birth rate and the current population structure,the cohort-component method is used to predict the population trend.2010 is selected as the base year,and the prediction results are obtained using the PADIS-INT software: China’s future population will increase first and then decrease in the short term,reaching the peak population in 2025 or 2030;The number of the juvenile population at the bottom of the age structure pyramid is shrinking,the number of elderly people at the top is increasing,and the gender of the population is becoming more balanced.The general trend of the working-age population is decreasing,and its proportion in the total population is also decreasing year by year.If the future fertility policy is still difficult to play a role,and the desire to reproduce is difficult to increase,China will face a tide of aging population.Finally,in view of China’s low fertility rate,it is necessary to analyze the impact of China’s current population structure on economic growth,which is helpful to identify potential economic growth points and alleviate the problems caused by sub-replacement fertility and aging.This article uses panel data from 31 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions from 2000 to 2017 to perform fixed effect regression.It is concluded that the stock of physical capital,labor participation rate,human capital level,birth rate and urbanization level are all positively related to economic growth.The total dependency ratio has a negative impact on economic growth.Human capital has a better effect on economic growth than the number of labor.In the current situation of slow population growth and reduced labor force,the labor supply model should be changed,employment rate should be increased,human capital level should be increased,and the population should be moved to cities.We should realize that long-term low fertility will seriously affect the population structure,bring about population risks,and be detrimental to the stable development of our society and economy.Governments,families,and businesses should work together to adjust and optimize the population structure and respond to the coming tide of aging as soon as possible. |
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