| The steady development of the real estate market is related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.As a pillar industry of the country,its importance to society is self-evident.China has a large population,a wide geographical distribution and a large gap between urban and rural areas.The development of the residential market varies greatly from region to region.Domestic first-tier cities,such as Beijing,Shanghai,guangzhou and shenzhen,have high housing prices,and the real estate market is overheating despite repeated national policy adjustments.Cities in the western regions and central and middle three and fourth line cities have high inventories."destocking" has become the theme of today’s market.For our country,the first-tier cities gather a lot of high-quality resources,which is the place where the talents gather,and the population is highly concentrated.The urban employment resources,education resources and medical resources in the central and western regions and three or four lines are relatively scarce,which cannot attract and retain talented people.Therefore,it is the place where the population is lost.Housing demand can be divided into rigid demand,improved sexual demand and speculative demand,which can be considered as a primary consideration.As the consumption behavior subject of residential demand,the population quantity can directly determine the size of effective housing demand.The increase of the marriageable age population will increase the rigid demand of housing.Increasing the number of middle-aged people will improve the demand for sexual purchase;An increase in the elderly population will increase the demand for housing.The spatial distribution of population will also bring difference to the housing price.In general,there are more speculative demand in the areas where the population flows more frequently.Therefore,it is very important to study the influence factors of the housing price.Based on the study of dalian city as the research object,this paper studied the influence of population structure factors on the residential prices of dalian city from 2001 to 2015 through qualitative analysis and quantitative research.According to the demographic related theory,the population structure is divided into three substructures,namely,the natural population structure,population of social and economic structure,regional structure,population and respectively according to the actual situation choose population sex ratio,as a measure of the natural population structure of labor force accounted indicator;Family size,population industrial structure,per capita disposable income as a measure of population socio-economic structure;Urban population proportion and population migration structure as measures of population geographical structure.Firstly,according to the data obtained from the statistical yearbook of dalian city,the fluctuation of house prices in dalian city is obtained.Then the econometric model of each person’s oral structure was established and quantitative analysis was carried out.In this paper,VAR model is used to study the influence of each individual’s oral structure on the housing price.It is concluded that the balanced population sex ratio has a driving effect on the housing price;The labor and housing price are the guidance of each other,the housing price is the key factor to attract the labor force to settle in dalian;The family size and the structure of the population industry have great influence on the fluctuation of the housing price,and the influence of per capita disposable income on the fluctuation of the housing price is not as expected.Urban population growth in the short term has a driving effect on residential prices,and the long-term impact is not significant;In the short term,the increase of net migration population has no significant impact on residential prices,and the long-term impact is significant,which has a significant effect on housing price.Finally,some Suggestions are put forward for the healthy and steady development of dalian residential market.According to the empirical conclusions,this paper to dalian city housing market healthy and stable development put forward the following Suggestions:one,the sex ratio imbalance can lead to the decline of marriage,the reduction in the number of new household,thus lead to a drop in housing demand.Therefore,we should rationally guide the sex ratio and maintain a balanced ratio between men and women.Ii.The family size of dalian is gradually narrowing,which can control the area of newly-built residential buildings,and the market will be more small and high-quality.In addition to meeting the needs of small families,the effective supply can be increased to stabilize the housing price.Three,the structure of the population migration in the long term impact on housing prices is larger,long-term development of the housing market have significant role in promoting,dalian municipal colleges and universities is numerous,can while encouraging foreign talent in dalian,dalian to local talents in colleges and universities in dalian to provide more preferential policies;Fourth,actively promote the traditional industry in dalian to intelligence,science and technology,finance,service industries such as transformation,through the transformation and upgrading of industries to attract more people into,overall enhance the market competitiveness of dalian city;Fifth,the housing demand of different income groups in the society is different,and the ability to buy houses varies greatly.The construction of a perfect housing system can not only solve the problem of residents’ living,but also can restrain the excessively rapid growth of the housing price and stabilize the housing price. |
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