| Nowadays,popution problem has become one of the key factors drawing affect on sustainable development of economy and society.One of the global trends is the declining of fertility in the whole world.The low fertility trap hypothesis was proposed when giving explanation for the lasting decreased low fertility in some European and Asian regions.With the rapid development of globalization,the convergence of total fertility rate has been more and more deep,therefore the very low fertility got much concern.As the biggest country,we are now facing China's new normal in population and economy.Consequently,many queation have been come up with during the rising up of new policy.What would be the true fertility in China? Has China fallen into the so-called “low fertility trap”? What kind of change in fertility rate will the Universal Two-child Policy bring about? Then will China fall into the trap under the new policy? These problems viewed from global scalehave drawn more attention of the scholars.Answers to these questions may help us to find out the truth of the total fertility,in order to figure out effects of implementation on the new policy.And after that,we will obtain deep consideration in practice of implementing and fertility policy.The paper is mainly divided into six parts:The first part is the introduction.This part summarizes background of the subject,the theoretical and practical significance,relevant studies both at home and abroad,research contents,the basic ideas,research methods and the technical routine.The second part is the summary of relevant theory.It contains analysis of fertility,low fertility trap and relevant theory,such as demographic transition theory,microeconomic theory of fertility low fertility model and low fertility trap hypothesis.In the third part,according to census data,data of education,WIS data,household registration data,economic data and data from other sources,we try to make comprehensive judgments and estimates towards the trend of China fertility changes since 1980 and future development.Using microeconomic theory of fertility,we have research on the effect drawed on pwople's fertility intention and concept.After that,based on the various data,we choose regression model consists of panel data and dynamic panel data to build one model,estimating the degree of influence for each factor.At last we achieve on simulation of multiple factors and their interaction on the fertility rate,as well as the mechanism of action of changes on fertility from various factors to explain.In the fourth part,drawing on the authoritative calculation of many scholars,we get an acquaintance for total fertility rate nowadays in China and give a discussion about the situation.Then this paper explores the spatial differentiation of the total fertility rate in China,and then uses the dynamic panel data and spatial panel data model to simulate and verify the spatial differences of the fertility level.In the fifth part,firstly,taking Shandong Province as a representative area,we analyse the effect of implementation on the Universal Two-child Policy,and new trends of future fertility level.Secondly,combined with the "low fertility trap" hypothesis formation mechanism and Chinese social and economic practice,to judge about the dynamic mechanism of China's falling into the of "low fertility trap",as well as making analysis and interpretation.The sixth part is summary of the main conclusion and the enlightenment to China.The enlightenments are as following: to adapt to the new population and be aware of the trap shackles;to adapt to the new norm and take adjustment and improvement for social policy;to appeal for cooperation of every part,and to explore the new strategy for the healthy development of population. |
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