Analysis Of The Impact Of Demographic On Housing Price In China

As one of the leading indicators of economic development,real estate industry plays a vital role in national economic development because of the high degree of relevance to and a strong driving for other industries.The 1998 housing reform policy has brought the booming of the real estate industry.Since then,China's real estate market development is very rapid.In recent years,housing prices across the country have increased dramatically and volatilely.Housing affordability has become a major challenge people face in their life.Housing is a major issue related to the people's livelihood,and the rapid rising of housing price has provoked great concerns.At the same time,China's population and demographic structure have undergone enormous changes in recent years,and the aging of the population has become more and more severe.Low birth rate also sounds an alarm.The most important attribute of housing is to provide a place for people to live,so real estate market changes are highly relevant to demographic factors.I will try to explain the impact of demographic factors on house prices from two aspects: the time and space of the demographic structure.The time factor of the paper refers specifically to the age demographic structure,and the space factor refers to demographic structure of the urban and rural area.But also consider the impact of the population education,gender and other demographic to housing prices.This paper attempts to draw on the theoretical model of the previous studies and use the validation tools to analyze the relationship between demographic changes and house price volatility.First of all,this paper reviews the development process of China's real estate industry,the changes in demographic structure and the current status,analyzes the mechanism of changes in housing prices,and the relationship between demographic structure and housing prices.Based on provincial level data from 2001 to 2014,this paper explores the demographic changes on housing prices from time and space perspectives.To ensure credibility of the results,stability test and comparative analysis have also been conducted.The results show that the increase of urbanization rate will cause housing prices to rise from the space point of view.From the time point of view,the percentage of children population is negatively correlated with housing prices,while the impact of the percentage of the elderly population hasthe characteristics of inverted U shape.In the early stage of population aging,because of the "altruistic" motives and withdrawing from savings will cause housing prices to rise.As the process goes on,the rigid demand for housing from the elderly population shifts to improve life quality,which put downward pressure on housing prices.In addition,the demographic factor will continue to affect housing prices in the future,and the influence will continue to strengthen.As growing population continues to age,the momentum of rapid rising of housing prices will stop.