Study On Policy Change Of The Universal Two-child Policy In China Based On ACF Theory

China has carried out the one-child policy on birth control since the 1980s,which made an important contribution to our country's economic and social development.It made our country in the 1990 s into the low fertility countries club and maintained a low fertility rate in the following 20 years.According to the 2010 Sixth National Population Census,the result of national total fertility rate has fallen to 1.18.Chinese population structure has changed,and population reproduction faces the potential risk.In this context,Chinese population policy adjusted step by step.From the "just one child" to "two children allowed",our population policy evolution is great significant.Two-child birth policy reform is always accompanied by controversy.How to understand the complex process of policy change?What are the motivation factors driving policy change?Based on the above problems,our study gives priority to descriptive and explanatory analysis,and makes every effort to test policy experience and theoretical framework.Therefore,this article intends to draw lessons from Advocacy Coalition Framework,by analyzing the key variables to explain the two-child birth policy change process.This study analyzes the internal logic and the dynamic mechanism of the process of two-child birth policy change,and wants to assess interpretation limits of Advocacy Coalition Framework in public policy process in our country.In view of this,this study combined with the Advocacy Coalition Framework to explain the policy change.We try use the method of variable analysis to describe the change of two-child policy and extract two kinds of power factors.We think there are two alliances in the population policy system.Each alliance holds different belief systems.They have the different answers about some questions,such as two children whether allowed,how to judge the one-child policy,the root causes of family planning policy evaluation,and so on.In order to realize policy proposals,members of both sides use resource advantage and strategy selection to push the policy change.Our study proves that two-child policy change process is the result of multiple dynamic combined,which include stable external factors,shocking incident and policy orientation study.Population policy change reflects the personality and commonality of Chinese public policy process,and examines applicability of the theory of Advocacy Coalition Framework in the public policy process in our country.