The Impact Of Chinese Population Structure On The Commercial Housing Price

Since the reform and opening,the real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries in China.Nowadays,with the rapid development of China's economy and the change of society environment,many problems which in the development process of the industry are gradually exposed.The housing price rising,that has become the focus of the society.Especially since from 2004 to 2016,the growth rate of China's commercial housing prices reached 10.20% per year,which in 2016 was as high as 16.64%.Many scholars have studied the factors affecting the price of commercial housing,but due to the impact of many factors,there still have on consistent conclusions.According to the demand of economic law of market economy,it is necessary to carry out in-depth analysis of demand of China's real estate market in the process of development,and to guide and regulate reasonably,which in order to achieve the rapid and sound development of the real estate industry.There are many factors that affect the housing price,the mechanism of which lies in the influence of the balance of housing supply and demand.Among all,the population as the main part of housing demand,has a fundamental impact on the housing price.Since the development of economy and the transformation of social concept and the policy of birth control in 1980 s,China's population structure has been undergoing tremendous changes.For example,the aging population is increasing,it needs time to realize the effect of two child policy,China's demographic dividend has been gradually disappeared;with the advancement of education environment,the education level of China's population has been continuously improved,which means the average number of years of education is increasing;with the changing of industry structure,employment structure of the population has been great changed;with the unbalanced development of regional economy,population migration and population urbanization have been intensified…These demographic changes will directly affect the housing demand,mainly for the quantity and quality of residential demand changes,which also will cause changes in housing supply,resulting in a significant impact on housing prices.This paper will discuss the housing price changes from the perspective of various population structure and analyze its mechanism and regional differences,which is aimed at providing reference for the government to make the policy and regulation of housing price and the real estate industry scientific and reasonable.Firstly,the relevant literature on past demographic factors and the relationship between housing price and theoretical research are summarized,according to the demographic classification of population structure,the population structure is divided into the population natural structure,population social structure and population geographical structure.And on the basis of the three structural indicators,the population natural structure can be subdivided into population sex structure and age population structure;the population social structure can be subdivided into population family structure,population marriage structure,population marriage structure,population income structure and population employment structure;the population geographical structure can be divided into population urban structure and population flow structure.Secondly,this paper describes the theoretical basis of the impact of population structure on housing prices,and analyzes the influence path of population structure on housing prices.Thirdly,this paper analyzes the current situation of China's population structure and the housing market,and the correlation between each population structure index and housing price by using the 1998-2015 data of 31 provinces.Fourthly,based on the analysis of the basic theory and the correlation between population structure and housing price,this paper constructs the panel data model of population structure's impact on the housing price,analyze the influence of population structure on housing prices separately from the population natural structure,population social structure and population geographical structure by using panel data of 31 provinces.The empirical results show that the elderly dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio have a negative impact on housing prices;the average length of education and per capita disposable income have positive relationships with the housing price,the improve of proportion of nonagricultural industries will also promote the rise of housing the price,and there exists a negative correlation between the average household size and housing prices,but there is no significant relationship between the proportion of spouses and housing price;the population urbanization rate and the population flow rate have positive relationships with housing prices.Fifthly,based on the characteristics of population structure and the housing market of China,this paper divide China into three categories by using the cluster analysis method.And then research the impact of population structure on housing prices of the three areas.The results show that there have significant differences on the impact of population structure on housing prices in different areas.Finally,from the perspective of population structure,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the healthy development of the housing market.