Study On Predicting Teh And Its Influencing Elements With Several Provinces And Cities

BackgroundIn recent years,the total expenditure on health has been increasing rapidly in China,which has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life,with the proportion of GDP being rising.At the same time,on the development of the TEH,there is a big difference between the provinces and cities in our country.What is the trend of its development?Whether the total expenditure on health will continue to develop at a high speed or not?Where is the driving force of the rapid development coming from? In view of these questions,it is necessary to study the development law of the TEH between the provinces and cities in China and to forecast its trend.And it is also necessary to explore the influencing elements for finding some measures to make the growth of the TEH in a reasonable way.And we can also put forward some advises for finding a coordinated way to develop the health services.ObjectiveThis paper aims to forecast the development trend of TEH and to divide TEH into several development stages in different provinces and cities.This paper also aims to explore elements that affect the increase of TEH.It lays the foundation for a reasonable increase in the TEH.It also provides a scientific basis for formulating reasonable and differentiated health policies for different provinces and cities.Methods1.Logistic function modelLogistic function model is a progress curve in the shape of “S”,specializing in accurately predicting research subject's development trends.It bears characteristics as followed: first,there are two time points which naturally divide the research subject into three stages,namely the gradual increase stage,rapid increase stage and slow increase stage;second,there will be an inflection point which will transform the functional curve from concave function into convex function.Among them,the progress speed at the stages of gradual increase and slow increase is relatively slow while the rapid increase stage's speed is very fast with the developing speed at the inflection point being the fastest.2.Panel data modelThe panel data refers to several cross sections snapped on the time series.It has both the dimension of cross section(n for individuals)and the dimension of time(T for periods).There are two kinds of panel data: short panel and long panel.In my research,T is bigger than n(T>n),so it's a long panel.This method will be applied in my study to analyze the factors influencing health expenditure in different provinces and cities,and the “OLS + panel corrected standard errors” among the long panel data's numerable analysis models will be used to do analysis.ResultsHeilongjiang,Tianjin,Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Guangxi,Xinjiang provinces(cities and autonomous regions)were sampled from China National Health Accounts Report.1.Basic information of total expenditure on health in sample provinces and citiesThe total health expenses of samples of provinces and cities in 2005-2014 grow larger.It accounts for an increasing proportion of GDP.The TEH per capita increased significantly.Each sample increases in provinces and cities are not identical.2.Logistic function model's fitting and predictingThe fitting degree of the total health expenditure of the sample provinces and cities is high.The inflection point in simple provinces and cities are different.The time points when the provinces and cities enter into the stage of rapid increase phrase are different too.Thelasting periods of their rapid increase stage are different,with Zhejiang being the longest and Guangxi being the shortest.3.Analyzing of the factors influencing the panel dataWith a significance level of P=0.01,the factors including GDP,per capita cash health expenditure,personal health expenditure rate and the number of people at hospital have certain influence to these simple provinces and cities' health expenditure.Among them,the factors like GDP,per capita cash health expenditure,and the number of people at hospital have a positive influence,while the personal health expenditure rate and have passive influence.Recommendation1.In the western region,the total health expenditure as a share of GDP is larger.There is heavy burden from medical and health.So we can increase the funding for health care through the way of transfer payment in the western region.2.There are different years to enter the fast-increasing period between the different provinces and cities.Provinces and cities that have entered that period should make the policy adjustment and support as soon as possible.Provinces and cities that don't enter that period should prepare for that.3.In order to control the fast development of the expenditure,we should increase the government's and social's health spending,and should reduce the cash expenditures per person.Through promoting healthy education and taking measures of building infrastructure for public health services we can improve the health of our people and lessen that number of hospital admission.