| The spread of influenza is a serious threat to human health,mastering its spread mechanism and analyzing its spread law is important to prevent and control influenza.In the spread of influenza,inter-regional population mobility caused by air travel is one of the main reasons of large-scale spread of disease.Building the computer model of the spatio-temporal spread of influenza to simulate the spread of influenza under the influence of air travel and analyzing its characteristics of spatio-temporal diffusion are of great reference value for the prevention and control of influenza.With these facts,this essay discusses and probes into the structural characteristics of Chinese aviation network,the influence mechanism of Chinese aviation network to influenza A/H1N1 transmission,the spatio-temporal spread agent-based model of Chinese influenza A/H1N1 was built with the city as the agent,and the simulation system software was obtained in theory as well as in application.The main contributions of theoretical research are as follows: 1)with the help of the Complex Network Theory,this essay analyzes the basic statistical characters and the connectivity of Chinese airline.The results show that airport is uneven distributed,its degree distribution follows the power-law distribution,strong connectivity between the airports as well as strong correlation between air passenger volume and the grade of the airport.2)with the help of Pearson correlation coefficient,this essay analyzes the influence mechanism of Chinese aviation network to influenza A/H1N1 transmission.The results show that in the time dimension,A(H1N1)is related to the air transport network in China at the beginning of the spread,but to the late middle stage of spread,the correlation is slowly weakened with the increase of local infection.In the spatial dimension,the higher the clustering of the airport,the easier to spread the epidemic in the aviation network,which also indirectly proved that the aviation network is an important way for the spread of A(H1N1).In applied studies: this paper proposed air-transportation networks as a point of penetration and research on key techniques of the Integration of air-transportation networks and agent,built an agent-based approach for modelling the spread in space and time of disease,model consists of two submodels: crew trip model based on aviation network and SEIR model.On the basis of this model,a simulation platform is designed and implemented,and simulated the spread of H1N1 influenza in China area in 2009-2010.The results show that: the comparison of the simulation results show that simulated values and measured values are basically consistent by using the proposed model,so the model can be more effective simulation for the spread of A(H1N1)in the aeronautical network.The transportation of aviation has accelerated the spread of epidemics.Assuming that there is no mechanism of control,A H1N1 spreads only about 57 days and spreads the whole study area.The spatial distribution pattern of the influenza A is from the eastern coast to the west.What's more,the higher the level of the close airports,can effectively control the spread of the epidemic in the region,and the higher the level of the airport,the greater the impact of the spread of A H1N1.The lower level of the close airports,can hardly have an impact on the spread of A H1N1. |
PDF Full Text Request