| About 79million people have already been injected the vaccine of A type H1N1 flu until February 24,2010 in China. The prevention and cure work of the virus of A type H1N1 flu has already obtained certain result, and the spreading of the virus in big city such as Peking, Shanghai...etc, have already got a certain control, but at the village region of our country still has partial fad with spread of trend. This reminds us that the prevention and cure of the virus of A type H1N1 flu will still be the point of the disease prevention and control in a very long time. Therefore, it will have important theories value and actual meaning by studying the dissemination of A type H1N1 flu disease and the theories of spreads regulation, as well as predicts its occurrence, the develop of trend, the aim of its own characteristics. We are going to adopt homologous intervention measures to prevent it from abrupt and spread.For a long time, the research of infectious diseases'process such as SARS and AIDS...etc, by Infectious disease dynamics theories, have provide a experienced theories and research methods for the prevention and cure of the virus of A type H1N1 flu. The Infectious disease dynamics theory is based on knowing the main factor of the popular process, and the influence of some infectious disease, and use the mathematics expression to reflect the characteristic of infectious disease spread process, It is a mathematics related to the disease ecology's restrict relationship. Also it is a mathematics emulation of the spreads process of the epidemic situation.The infectious disease dynamics model is now used in many fields of the study of the infectious disease, and it is very important for study the characteristic and the effect of the infectious disease, and the estimate of the epidemic situation. Compared with the complicated equation in the infectious disease dynamics' theories, agent based modeling method can avert from the mathematical formula of tedious complications, and carry on a research and imitate the spreading of A type H1N1 flu process virus through a PC software, provide a new method and way of thinking for some social researchers when they carried on the research on A type H1N1 flu.This research based on the present research of the virus of A type H1N1 flu, we set the target as study the spread process, predict it's trend and effectively control the epidemic situation, and we carried on a research according to the virus epidemic situation and control strategy against the A type H1N1 flu.In this paper, we adopt both quality and quantity ways for the study of A type H1N1 flu. First of all, We discussed the complexity system and complicated adaptability theories, and laid solid theories foundation for building the simulation of A type H1N1 flu, Secondly, we introduced the agent based modeling method and infectious disease dynamics theories, and discussed the definition of infectious disease and infectious disease epidemic situation, carried on demarcation to the epidemic situation grade, and we try our best to carry out the spread process of the disease according the reality; Finally, after the understanding of the infectious disease spreads regulation in detail, we consider the influence of artificial control factors and try to predict a corresponding of result and epidemic situation development stages and built up the simulation of the disease spread model. Each parameter's actual meaning is explicit in the model, and is closely related with the epidemic spreads process, carried out the emulation of the epidemic spreads process. We also draw up to adopt of defending and control measure reflection by precisely regulate the model parameter, and provide the science basis against the infectious disease. |
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