| BackgroundWith the development of society and the increasingly close exchanges, infectious diseases spread more quickly than before, which is a great threat to human health, but also is a great challenges in today’s society and medical technology faces. The old infectious diseases and the new infectious diseases have become a serious threat to human health.Huaiyin District is located in downtown Ji’nan, the floating population and the resident population is more, so the prevention and control of infectious disease is facing great challenges. Through the analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of notifiable infectious diseases in the region, to help local residents to understand the disease prevention departments and local characteristics of infectious diseases, and provide a scientific basis for infectious disease prevention and control measures of local future.Objectives(1) To understand the epidemiological characteristics of notifiable infectious diseases in Huaiyin District in 2015;(2) To explore of notifiable infectious diseases in Huaiyin District change trends 2006-2015;(3) To predict the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in Huaiyin District in 2016.MethodsThrough descriptive research, used Excel2007 and SPSS17.0 software to analyse the data of infectious diseases in 2015 and 2006-2015, and used GM (1,1) model, trend extrapolation model and the combination model to predict the overall incidence of the disease in 2015 through the incidence of the overall infectious disease in 2006-2014. Compared the average relative error of predict the incidence rate and the actual incidence rate in 2015 by different model, and the model in which the average relative error was small was optimal model, and application of optimal model predict 2016 incidence of infectious diseases.Results1. There were 19 notifiable disease were found in this city in 2015, the total statutory infectious disease incidence rate of 644.55/100000, the mortality rate of 0.61/100000. There were 14 B infectious diseases, and the incidence rate of 157.37/100000, there were 5 C infectious diseases, the incidence rate of 487.18 people/100000. The hand foot mouth (393.53/100000) and other infectious diarrhea (75.73/100000), scarlet fever (48.66/100000), hepatitis B and scarlet fever(42.35/100000) and syphilis (18.32/100000) were the most five notifiable infectious disease.2. The percent of male and female patients were 59.54% and 40.46% in 2015; the average age was12.52±18.65, and the patients under 10 were accounted for75.27%; the main notifiable infectious diseases under 10 were hand, foot and mouth disease (1920) and scarlet (236), the main notifiable infectious diseases with other age were other infectious diarrhea and hepatitis B; the main occupation of patients were scattered children and preschool children, accounted for 49.08% and 20.91%; the main notifiable infectious diseases of scattered children (1334 cases) and kindergarten children (525 cases) were hand, foot and mouth disease; the main notifiable infectious diseases of housework and unemployment (859), other infectious diarrhea mainly (139), farmers (23) and retired cadres (32 cases)) was hepatitis B.3. The main notifiable infectious diseases was Intestinal infectious diseases in 2015 according to the way of transmission, accounted for74.07%, and the morbidity was 477.40/100000; the average age was7.33±13.61, and the main occupation of patients was scattered children, accounted for 62.69%, and the percent of preschool children was 22.43%. The morbidity of respiratory infectious diseases was 82.65/100000, and the average age was12.27±16.36, and the main occupation of patients were children and students, accounted for 33.50% and 29.06%. The morbidity of blood and sexually transmitted diseases was 83.88/100000, and the average age was 42.66±17.45, and the main occupation of patients was housework and unemployment, account for 47.82%. The morbidity of natural foci and insect borne infectious diseases was 0.61/100000, and the brucellosis was the only morbidity of natural foci and insect borne infectious diseases.4. The hand, foot and mouth disease was the main notifiable infectious diseases in 2015. The average age of the patients was 3.07 ±2.28; the ratio of men and women for the patients was 6:4; the main occupation were scattered children and young supporting children, accounting for 69.01% and 27.16%; June, July and August were the main three months of hand, foot and mouth disease, accounting for 68.49% of the total annual incidence of the disease. The morbidity of hepatitis B 42.35/100000; the percent of men and women were 68.27% and 31.73%; the average age of the patients was 45.74± 16.59 years; the main occupation of patients was housework and unemployment dominated (54.81%). The morbidity of other infectious diarrhea was 75.73/100000; the average age of the patients was 26.44±22.65; the percent of men and women were 51.08% and 48.92%; the main occupation of patients was housework and unemployment dominated (37.37%). The morbidity of scarlet fever was 48.66/100000; the average age of the patients was 5.71 ±1.87; the percent of men and women were60.67% and 39.33%; the main occupation was children in the kindergarten (43.51%). The morbidity of syphilis was 18.32/100000; the average age of the patients was 39.45±18.82; the latent syphilis was the main syphilis (38.52%); the percent of men and women were 53.33% and 46.67%; the main occupation of patients was housework and unemployment dominated (38.89%).5. There were 28 notifiable disease were found in this city from 2006 to 2015, and the main notifiable disease was hand, foot and mouth disease after 2007. The morbidity of notifiable disease was 299.43/100000 in 2006 rose to 644.55/100000 in 2015; the average annual incidence rate of 472.73/100000; the annual average mortality rate of 0.33/100000. There was difference between age and different years (P<0.001); There was difference between sex and different years (P<0.001).6. The morbidity of respiratory infectious disease was increased from 2006 to 2015; the lowest in 2010 was 14.50/100000 and the highest in 2015 was 82.65/100000. The morbidity of blood and sexually transmitted diseases was relatively stable from 2006 to 2015, the lowest in 2007 was 78.15/100000 and the highest in 2013 was 117.84/100000. The morbidity of Intestinal infectious disease was increased from 2006 to 2015; the lowest in 2006 was 122.34/100000 and the highest in 2015 was 477.40/100000. The morbidity of nature and epidemic of infectious diseases was small from 2006 to 2015; the lowest in 2006,2008 and 2012 were 0/100000 and the highest in 2015 was 0.61/100000.7. The morbidity of hand, foot and mouth disease was 18.53/100000 in 2006 rose to 393.53/100000 in 2015. The morbidity of hepatitis B were between 30.83/100000 and 65.93/100000. The morbidity of syphilis were between 11.35/100000 and 32.86/100000. The morbidity of other infectious diarrhea was 9.74/100000 in 2006 rose to 75.73/100000 in 2015. The morbidity of scarlet fever was 2.14/100000 in 2006 rose to 48.66/100000 in 2015.8. The prediction of the rate of incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in 2016 were 616.06/100000,606.16/100000,611.20/100000 based on GM (1,1) model, trend extrapolation model and the combination model. Compared with the actual incidence rate, the MEPA of GM (1,1) model was the small (4.42%), so the GM (1,1) model was the best model to forecast the morbidity of 2016.9. The forecast the morbidity of 2016 was 657.65/100000 based on the GM (1, 1) model.Conclusions1. There were 19 notifiable infectious diseases were found in 2015, intestinal infectious diseases the main notifiable infectious diseases according to the transmission way, and hand foot mouth is the main notifiable infectious disease.2. The ratio of men and women for the patients was 6:4 in 2015; and average age is small, the main occupation were scattered children and young supporting children.3. There were 28 notifiable infectious diseases were found from 2006 to 2015,the incidence rate of the overall increase, which was due to hand, foot and mouth disease reasons for the rapid growth. The most three main types of communication are intestinal infectious diseases, blood and sexually transmitted diseases and respiratory infectious disease according to the route of transmission from 2006 to 2015. The cause of the increase in incidence may be due to more migrant workers, increasing the probability of infectious diseases, hand, foot and mouth disease incidence rate is another possible reason.4. The change trend of the disease incidence of notifiable infectious diseases was the same to the trend of the hand foot mouth in Huaiyin District from 2006 to 2015. The total change of infectious diseases was mainly caused by hand foot and mouth disease.5. The gray GM (1,1) model is the best model to predict the incidence of local statutory infectious diseases compared with the trend extrapolation and combination model prediction model. The forecast the morbidity of 2016 was 657.65/100000 based on the GM (1,1) model. |
PDF Full Text Request