The Study On Current Status And Future Demand Of Human Resources For Health In The Township Health Centers In Henan Province

ObjectiveThis study learns the present status of human health resources of different economic areas of the township clinics, and analyzes the allocation differences of health and human resource and the present problems, by researching the health human resources of the township clinics in Henan Province. Our study forecasts for the health technicians in the target years (Year 2010 and 2015) by building forecasting model.It was provided a basis and guidance for rational deployment the human health resources of township clinics in Henan Province.MethodsThe 108 counties in Henan Province was divided into three grades for different economic levels in accordance with per capita income,based on the 2008's census data of human health resources.7 counties were randomly sampled from three graes of economic levels, so 21 sample counties intotal. We analyzed the quantities and structures of health professionals in each sample, and discussed the problems of the structure and deployment. Furthermore, we forecasted the health technicians for target years based on data of the years 1999-2008 by selecting the best forecasting models.ResultsYoung and middle-aged professionals were the chief technical forces in township clinics,73.5% in percentage. The deployment of the health professionals was irrational. The health personal in township clinics working without qualifications were widespread. Health technicians without qualifications in high economic level areas was less than other areas, but close to 50%. It was on the low side and irrational proportions of education and technical posts. Vocational school was the main way for the grassroots level health workers of township clinics. Health technicians without qualifications were most. Areas of good economic level were better than others. The results from explorative model showed that the grey model has the supreme accuracy. Based on the data of Year 1999 to 2008, the study forecasted the quantities of the health technicians of three gradess regions in the target year, and the results showed:6856,7691; 6154, and 6237,7458. ConclusionsThe deployment of the health professionals in township clinics of Henan Province was irrational. We should increase the input on the public health of rural poor areas. The overall quality level of the health professionals in township clinics of Henan Province was low, especially in rural poor areas. It is necessary to improve the quality of the health professionals in township clinics by policy backing up and talents bring up. The grey model which has the supreme accuracy is the advisable forecasting model. To predict health technicians of the year 2010 and 2015 in three degrades regions, the results showed as:6856,7691; 5012,6154 and 6237,7458, compared with the year of 2008, the total quantity increased 410; 391and 508 in number respectively.