Suitability Analysis Of Wheat Blast In World And China Under Climate Change Scenarios Based On Maxent

Wheat blast was reported only in South America.In the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,four climatic scenarios are presented to predict the potential of wheat blast.The research uses MaxEnt and GIS software,and predicts the distribution of the potential suitable area of wheat in 2030 s,2050s and 2070 s based on the distribution datas of the wheat blast and the 19 biologic environmental datas of current and future climate scenarios.The contribution rate of each biological environment data to the model was analyzed and evaluated by jackknife method and the model was tested by using the operating characteristic curve of the subjects.The results showed that wheat blast remained unchanged in the main provinces of China under different climate scenarios under current and in the future,but the sum of the areas in the middle and high risk areas increased significantly.The maximum effect of temperature and humidity on the potential suitable area of wheat blast was 0.995(training set)and 0.994(validation set),indicating that the predicted results of the model were excellent.