Suitable Habitat Zoning Of Three Plants Of Scutellaria Baicalensis And Its Response To Climate Change

Climate is the decisive factor of species distribution, and the distribution of species is the most distinct response to climate. Analysis of the relationships between different climate environment and species scientifically, is the basis to accurately predict climate change on species distribution of suitable habitat, can also provide data support for species protection, genetic improvement, domesticated and other production activities.Scutellaria is a large genus of Labiatae, there are more than 300 kinds of Scutellaria plants around the world and they distribute in many countries, for example China, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, Russia and other countries. The distribution of Scutellaria plants in China is relatively broad and most of them are wild, recorded by the "Flora of China", there are more than 100 kinds of Scutellaria plants in China. "China Pharmacopoeia" contains Scutellaria baicalensis Georgi as authentic medicinal materials, with active ingredients baicalin content not less than 9.0% for medicine. In addition to S. baicalensis, other Scutellaria plants also used as a substitute for S. baicalensis, such as S. scordifolia, S. amoena and so on.In this study, we selected S. baicalensis as research object, used fuzzy mathematics, entropy value method and GIS to evaluation the suitable habitat of S. baicalensis under current climate scenarios, build the ecological distribution model based on baicalin content data of S. baicalensis, determine the quality in different habitats of S. baicalensis. And we based on MaxEnt niche model to predict suitable habitats potential distribution of S.baicalensis under different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in future (2050s and 2070s). At the same time we selected S. scordifolia and S. amoena, used MaxEnt niche model to simulations and predict the suitable habitats potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios, to explore the influence of climate change, provided reference and advice for the protection and sustainable use of Scutellaria plants.The results are as follows:1、The total area of highly suitable habitat of S.baicalensis based on the content of baicalin are mainly located in the northern of Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River Line, distributed in Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, central and southern of Shaanxi, Hebei, Jilin, southern of Heilongjiang and Shanxi. In addition, other provinces such as Yunnan, Anhui, Sichuan also has a small amount of distribution. The main factors affecting the accumulation of baicalin are MDR (Mean Diurnal Range), PS (Precipitation Seasonality), PMAX (Precipitation of Wettest Month) and ASPE (Aspect).2、The partition of S. scordifolia based on MaxEnt niche model shows, the highly suitable habitat’s area accounted for 6.15% of China’s land area, the moderately suitable habitat’s area accounted for 7.42%, the moderately habitat area accounted for 11.77%, the unsuitable habitat area accounted for 74.66%. S. scordifolia are mainly located in the northern of China, such as Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, the southern of Gansu, the eastern of Qinghai, the middle of Inner Mongolia, the southern of Liaoning, Shandong, the southern of Henan. The climate factors which have large influence on S. scordifolia are Bio12 (Mean Diurnal Temperature Rang), PG (Precipitation of Growth), Bio13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month), Bio14 (Precipitation of driest Month), Bio 16 (Precipitation of Wettest Quarter), Bio 17 (Precipitation of Driest Quarter), Bio 18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter) and Bio 19 (Precipitation of Coldest Quarter), shows that S. scordifolia is quite harsh requirement for precipitation.3、The suitable habitat of S. amoena are mainly located at the northern of Yunnan and the southern of Sichuan, in addition, in the eastern of Tibet, northern of Sichuan, east northern of Guizhou and Guangxi also have some suitable habitats of S. amoena. The climate factors which have large influence on S. amoena are Bio4 (Temperature Seasonality), Bio3 (Isothermality), Bio6 (Min Temperature of Coldest Month) and Bio 12 (Annual Precipitation).4、The influence of future climate change on suitable habitat distribution of S. baicalensis, S. scordifolia and S. amoena is mainly embodied in the area and the distribution of suitable habitats. We find the stronger of the climate scenarios’s radiation force, the greater of the amplitude of change and migration. As time goes on, the highly suitable habitats distribution area of S. baicalensis will gradually decrease, the geometric center of gravity will gradually migrate to higher latitudes. Under RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the geometric center of gravity of S. baicalensis’s highly suitable habitats will migrate from Shaanxi Yan’an to Linfen in Shanxi province by 2070s. The highly suitable habitats distribution area of S. scordifolia will gradually increase, and the geometric center of gravity will gradually migrate from Lvliang to Xinzhou in Shanxi province by 2070s. The highly suitable habitats distribution area of S. amoena will also gradually increase, and the geometric center of gravity will gradually move to northwest, this phenomenon shows that the suitable habitats of S. amoena will migrate to higher latitudes and higher altitude.