Potential Suitable Areas Of Main Crops In Kenya And Its Variation In Future Climate Scenario

Kenya main crops, including maize (Zea mays), wheat (Triticum aestivum), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), potato(Solanum tuberosum) and sweet potatoes (Dioscorea esculenta) suitable growth parameters databases and environmental databases (including topography, climate, and soil attributes) were established. Then with Geographic Information System (GIS) as the main technical means, and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) as the basic principle, the potential suitable areas for these main crops and their variation trend under the future climate scenario (year2080) were evaluated. These results indicated that:1) In the current climate scenario, all the five main crops distribute at the Midwest and South mainly, whose average elevation is1000-2000m and the annual rainfall is800-1600mm, crops growth period average temperature is10-25℃2) In the current climate scenario, the potential suitable areas of maize, wheat, sorghum, potato and sweet potato is16×105ha,15.6×105ha, 28.3×105ha,17×105ha and20.9×l05ha respectively. But in the future climate scenario, the potential suitable areas of these five crops will change to14.7×105ha,12.8×105ha,30.6×105ha,16.6×105ha and29.8×l05ha. Thus, the sorghum and sweet potato potential suitable areas will increase in the future, but the potential suitable areas of wheat, maize and potato will decrease.3) In the future climate scenario, sorghum and sweet potato potential suitable areas will increase significantly. The sorghum potential suitable areas will increase8.1% and migrate to Southeast. Sweet potato potential suitable areas will increase42.6% and extend to Southwest and Northeast.4) In the future climate scenario, the potential suitable area of maize, wheat and potato will decrease8.1%,17.9% and2.4% respectively, which may be caused by the growth period temperature increase. Maize potential suitable areas will move eastward, but the wheat and potato potential suitable areas will stay the same.