Study On The Risk Of Ganzhou Urban Rail Transit Project Based On Cloud Matter-element Model

With the intensification of urbanization in recent years,more and more large and medium-sized cities appea and large cities,"disease" has gradually highlighted.in order to meet the increasing traffic demand,the country’s large and medium-sized cities are in the construction or Construction of rail transit projects.Although the urban rail transit project provides more promotion for the local transportation economy,but the project has its own features.project investment is huge;the construction period is longer;the construction period is very tight;the construction task is heavy and so on.So around the urban rail transit project to carry out effective risk assessment of the entire project is still very successful necessary The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:1.It describes the background and significance of the thesis in detail.With the intensification of urbanization,large and medium-sized cities resident population and floating population increasing.in recent years,urban car ownership is also greatly improved and the major cities have varying degrees of congestion.During the 13 th Five-Year Plan,the state strongly encouraged the construction of urban rail transit and in line with the city to declare urban rail transit projects are more and more.It can be predict that China’s urban rail transit investment and construction efforts will be greater in the future.Although China’s urban rail transit in all aspects of technology in the world has been ranked and it has lots of experience about the project management,but as of now,according to urban rail projects that the country has built,the risk of quality,cost,progress and safety and civilized construction is still very difficult to fully control and the implementation process of the project accident risk is still high frequency.2.By reading a large number of related literature at home and abroad,using Delphi method to identify the risks involved in urban rail transit projects,the relevant risks are mainly from laws and regulations,economy,management,completion,operation and maintenance,environmental protection and natural risk.Seven types of risks cover a total of22 secondary risk indicators,establishing urban rail transit project risk assessment system.useing analytic hierarchy theory to obtain the weight value of first risk indicators and the secondary index,it build Risk Assessment Model of Urban Rail Transit Project by integrating Matter Element Analysis and Cloud Model based on Cloud Matter Element Model.,3.The risk assessment model of urban rail transit project based on cloud matter-element model is used to evaluate the risk assessment of Ganzhou urban rail transit project,which is provided by Ganzhou Iron and Steel Bureau and Urban and Rural Planning Bureau.According to the calculation process editing program,using the MATLAB software to program the membership degree of the secondary risk factors to different risk levels and the risk factors corresponding to different risk levels are weighted by the secondary risk factors.The risk factors of each level correspond to different risk level membership degree.The total target element of the project corresponds to the different risk level correlation degree by weighting the first-level risk factors correspond to different risk levels.and determining the risk level of each risk factor according to the association degree maximum criterion.According to the calculation results of each correlation degree,the risk of law and regulation,economic risk,operation and maintenance risk and natural risk is lower;management risk and environmental risk are the general;the risk of completion is higher,analyzing risk and giving recommendations for different risks.4.The results of the risk assessment of the urban rail transit project in Ganzhou are in good agreement with the actual situation of the project.The results show that the risk assessment system and model of the urban rail transit project have good practicality and can provide theoretical guidance and reference significance for the urban rail transit project risk management.