Study On Key Node Coupling Risk Of Maritime Transport Based On Catastrophe Theory

Maritime transport is the main mode of world trade transport,which plays an important role in world economic development.The key node of maritime transport is an important connection point of the global maritime network,which is an important link to ensure the safe passage of maritime transport.Some of the key nodes of sea transport as the throat of maritime transport,not only affect the safety of maritime transport between trade countries,but also support the economic development of their countries.It can be said that the key nodes of maritime transport on the world's influence is self-evident.Ensuring the safety of key nodes in maritime transport has been one of the strategies of building a country of marine power.In recent years,maritime transport critical node security systems have been threatened by non-traditional security factors,especially pirates,which have had a significant impact on navigation safety for key nodes.In addition,with some of the traditional security factors often occur,the sea transport critical node security system is facing a huge challenge.The level of safety of key nodes in maritime transport is determined by the interaction of these influencing factors,mutual influence and final coupling.And the occurrence of these factors are often random and sudden characteristics,leading to the sea transport key nodes as a whole the degree of security often changes.Therefore,it is important to measure the risk coupling of the critical node security system for maritime transport,which is of great significance for grasping the safety status of key nodes in maritime transport.The risk-coupled metric of key nodes in maritime transport is a measure based on the characteristics of its safety factors and the mechanism of interaction,and measure the safety status of the key nodes of maritime transport.This paper first uses the method of statistical analysis of historical emergencies to identify the safety factors that affect the key nodes of maritime transport.Based on this,on the one hand,the risk index system of key nodes in maritime transport is established.On the other hand,the characteristics and mechanism of risk factors coupling in key nodes of maritime transport are analyzed.Then,a mutation series method based on the catastrophe theory is proposed and a risk coupling model of key nodes in the sea transportation is constructed based on the improved mutation series method.The main aspects of improvement are the use of factor analysis to quantify the hierarchical structure of the metric,and the other to adjust the optimization of the results.Finally,through the measurement of the risk coupling of the key nodes in China's maritime transport,validating the feasibility and practicability of the model,which provides a reference for the macroscopic understanding of the security status of the key nodes in China's maritime transport.