Risk Assessment Of Operational Oil Spills Of "YUKUN" On Catastrophe Theory

With the development of the economy,the number of ships in the sea is increasing,and the Marine environment has been put to face a great test.In numerous Marine pollution,the damage caused by ship's oil spill is serious.At present,there is enough research on accident oil spill in ships while the study of operational oil spill is not particularly deep.In this passage,catastrophe theory has been used to study the YUKUN paroxysmal characteristics of wheel operational system of oil spill,which can predict the possibility of related operations of spilled oil,therefore it can provide reasonable suggestions for the crew of ship operationFirstly,focus on the paroxysmal characteristics of the system,it is proposed that the mutation theory be applied to the study of ship's operational oil spill.By reading the literature and consulting experts,the operational state of the system of oil spill mutation is divided into four factors of mutation:people,ships,management and environment.Establishing operational oil spill butterfly mutation model and mapping out the accident mechanism based on the butterfly model in this system are used to explain "YUKUN"operational system of oil spill mutation mechanism,namely "YUKUN" operational mechanism of the oil spill accident cause.Secondly,starting from the complexity of ship operation,it involves many influence factors.Four factors such as people,ships,management and environment will be further refined based on catastrophe theory of "YUKUN" operational oil spill risk assessment system.Aiming at the shortcomings of relying too much on weights in the previous evaluation,this paper adopts mutation progression method for safety evaluation system of ships operating system,and develop safety evaluation standard based on catastrophe theory "YUKUN" operational system of oil spill.Finally,the evaluation model established in this paper is validated and the reasonable suggestion is given by combing the example of the "YUKUN" wheel injection fuel operation.Verification results show that the evaluation model can reasonably describe"YUKUN" operational mechanism of the oil spill accident,and it can predict the implementation of ships in the process of system security state.The research results provide a new way for the study of oil spill accidents at sea,and it is a certain extent to enrich the research content of marine oil spill accident.