The Analysis On Conflict Behaviors Of Right-turn Motor Vehicles And Non-motor Vehicles At Signalized Intersections

The explosive growth in the number of motor vehicles posed tremendous pressure on urban road traffic networks.At intersections of urban roads,the traffic conflicts caused by non-motor vehicles and motor vehicles competing with each other for time and space resources occur frequently,and right-turn motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles bear the brunt of the conflic.In order to reduce the number of traffic problems and improve the service level at the signalized intersection,it is imminent to study the collision between non-motorized vehicles and the right-turn motor vehicles at the signalized intersections.Therefore,this paper aims to study the severity and influencing factors of conflict between right-turn motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles based on the technology of traffic conflict,further discuss the decision-making behaviors of drivers and riders before conflicts.Specifically,the research work of this paper mainly includes the following aspects:(1)Investigation on the conflict behaviors of right-turn motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles.Taking into account the conflict behaviors of right-turn motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles will be affected by the traffic environment,we chose the typical signal intersections in Beijing for video capture to get the basic data.According to the need of the research,we get the variables of the evaluation index of the severity of the conflict and the factors that affect the severity conflicts by coding and calculating the basic data.This work can be prepared for the following analysis of the severity of the conflicts and the influencing factors.(2)Analysis on traffic characteristics and conflict characteristics of right-turn motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles.Traffic participants’ characteristics are the root of analysis on traffic conflicts.Based on the data obtained from the investigation,this paper studies the individual characteristics,arrival characteristics,the rules of agglomeration and dissipation of non-motor vehicles and arrival rules of motor vehicles.Based on the velocity parameters of right-turn vehicles and non-vehicles arriving in the conflict zone,the movement status of the two conflicting parties under different traffic environment and individual characteristics are studied.(3)The division model of conflict severity between right-turn motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles based on fuzzy C-means clustering is established,which gives the attribute of severity level for the conflict samples.Considering the possible correlations between the variables of the original influencing factors,the original variables are dimensionally reduced based on the method of factor analysis before analyzing the influencing factors of the conflict severity.In studying the effects of differentinfluencing factors on the conflict severity,we take into account that the severity level of the conflict is a multiple ordered variable,so a multiple ordered logistic model is established to analyze the influencing factors of the conflict severity.(4)The severity of the conflict between right-turn motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles depends on the decision-making behaviors of both conflict parties.The idea of game theory is introduced to analyze the scenario and process of decision-making behaviors,and the profit function of both decision-making behaviors is derived based on the delay and risk parameters.On this basis,a non-cooperative dynamic game model between drivers and riders is established.By calculating the expected returns of the driver and the rider under different strategies,we find that regardless of the rider and the driver who is the first to make a decision,the driver choose to grab and the rider choose to wait to pass the conflict zone can get the maximum return.