Research On Early Warning Method Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Changxing

Water is the basic resource to maintain human survival and social and economic sustainable development,and has become an inevitable choice for mankind With the rapid development of Changxing County economy,population growth,industrialization and city development,social demand for water increases,water resource shortage and ecological degradation problems become apparent,the balance of supply and demand of water resources is facing a great challenge.In order to ensure the coordinated development of water resources,society,economy and ecology in Changxing County,it is necessary to use scientific methods to carry out early warning research on regional water resources carrying capacity.The main research contents and results as follows:(1)This paper reviews the current situation of early-warning research at home and abroad,combs the advantages and disadvantages of the commonly used evaluation methods of water resources carrying capacity,and puts forward the existing problems in the study of water resources carrying capacity early warning.Starting from the basic theory of water resources carrying capacity early warning,this paper compares the similar concepts of early warning,and expounds the definition,logical framework and basic methods of early warning.(2)In view of the current water resources development and utilization problems,combined with the social and economic development and water supply situation in Changxing County,follow the principles of integrity,feasibility,stability,dynamic,hierarchical and regional principles,selected to reflect the water resources system,social system,economic system and ecological system of internal changes on 20 early warning indicators affect the load-bearing capacity.Referring to the national standard value and drawing on the scholars’ research results,the standard values of the warning index of water resources carrying capacity in Changxing County are worked out.(3)By analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the main evaluation methods of water resources carrying capacity,the paper uses AHP and fuzzy evaluation method to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Changxing County.The evaluation results show that the carrying capacity of water resources in Changxing County province is at an appropriate level during the past 2005～2015 years,and the carrying capacity of water resources has remained stable for many years,and the fluctuation range is not large.From 2005 to 2015 in Changxing County water resources,social and economic development and ecological environment based on the data,using GM(1,1)grey forecasting model of each index in 2018 and 2020,and early warning evaluation of Changxing County water resources carrying capacity.Overall in the proper load horizontal bearing capacity of water resources in 2018 and 2020,water resources system,social system and economic system were released without warning signal,and the ecosystem have released the light alarm signal,and puts forward the detailed measures to increase the bearing capacity of water resources.