Theories, Methods And Applications Of Allocation And Early Warning Of Water Resources Potential

With the rapid development of society and economy, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become increasingly prominent, and the relationship among population, resources, and ecological environment has been a vital issue greatly concerned by the whole world in the21st century. The dilemma of deficient water resources not only holds back the social and economic growth, but also causes the gradual deterioration of water ecological environment. For a certain area, reasonable allocation of water resources is one of the effective ways to solve the above problems. The research of allocation and utilization of water resources involves many disciplines and fields, which is a very large and complex system engineering problem, and one of the research difficulties is lack of effective theory and method. Guided by the sustainable development theory and water resources system analysis theory and enlightened by relevant previous research, the dissertation proposes water resources field theory and the concept of water resources potential which can describe the characteristics of water resources integrally, and finally puts forward the system of theories of allocation and early warning of water resources potential, which is of great importance both in theory and practice. And the whole dissertation consists of seven chapters, and the contents of each one are listed as follows.Chapter1is exordium. The research background and significance are introduced. After the research review of optimal allocation of water resources, water rescoures carrying capacity, early warning of sustainable water resources utilization and field theory, the main research contents and technical routes of the whole dissertation are proposed.In Chapter2, water rescoures field theory and the new concepts of water rescoures potential, water rescoures supply potential, water rescoures demand potential and water resources net potential difference are first proposed, and then water resources potential function is set up. Finally, the system of theories of water resources field are put forward.In Chapter3, on the basis of discussing connotations of water resources potential allocation, the mechanism of water resources potential allocation based on cybernetics is proposed. A multiobjective model of water resources potential allocation is built based on three quantitative submodels of economical, social and eco-environmental objective functions as well as several constraints. And multi-objective decomposition-coordination genetic algorithm is used to solve the model. Finally, the evaluation model of degree of order of water resources potential allocation scheme is proposed on the basis of discussing the characteristics of collaborative mechanism of water resources potential allocation.In Chapter4, on the basis of comprehensively analysis of concepts, connotations, characteristics of water resouces potential carrying capacity, the indicators of water resources potential carrying capacity are proposed, including water resources carrying indicator, water resources pressure indicator and pressure degree of water resources.In Chapter5, the concepts, principles and procedures of early warning of sustainable utilization of water resources potential are systematically describesd. And the forewarning indicators of sustainable utilization of water resources potential are proposed and the indicator system of sustainable utilization of water resources potential is construct by discussing the characteristics of water resource compound system. After analyzing the alarming boundary of indicators, the methods of fuzzy optimization and projection pursuit-chaos optimization are proposed.In Chapter6, Fuhuan River is selected as a case study of water resources potential allocation, and the allocation model is built and solved with determined parameters, and the final alternatives in the different scenarios are recommended, and an evaluation model of degree of order is applied in the allocation scheme of water resources potential. And then water resources potential carrying capacity of the region is analyzed, the situations of the future sustainable utilization of water resources are forcasted, meanwhile, some conclusions and recommendations are put forward, and the feasibility and validity of the theories and methods of allocation and early warning of water resources potential are also confirmed.Finally, chapter7are the conclusions of the whole dissertation. And the main research contributions are summarized, and some problems that need to be solved in the future are outlined.