Based On Bayesian Network Method Of Dry Bulk Ships Sailing Accident Cause Analysis

Sea transportation has the characteristics of high risk all the time,once the accident,is often accompanied by serious economic losses,casualties and environmental pollution.Especially as a worldwide industry the main mode of transportation of dry bulk shipping,shipping fleet in the world occupies an extremely important position.Again due to the transportation characteristics of dry bulk ships,often in loading,lashing binding deficiency problems lead to ship's stability and cause accidents,so as to prevent or reduce accident of dry bulk ships,priority has been the related management departments.This article in learning and reference on the basis of predecessors' research results.First of all,the combination of collect accident case samples for China's maritime safety administration system,explores the dry bulk ships sailing accident type,key research ZiChen,grounding and collision of the three aspects of the accident.From human factors,environmental factors,management factors and ship four aspects analysis the cause of dry bulk ships,accident,determination,definition of network nodes,finding out the dry bulk ship accident chain and build ship accident of bayesian networks.Simulation of bayesian network model,then select 20 samples to verify this model,determine its effectiveness.Secondly,analyzes the proportion of dry bulk ships sailing accidents;Of dry bulk ships collision,ZiChen,grounding the three accident cause chain were analyzed,and obtain the most likely cause of chain.Finally,the sensitivity analysis of the bayesian network nodes,the most easily lead to ship the cause of the accident.According to the results put forward countermeasures for prevention of the accident,and put forward prospect.This paper studies the relevant administrative department of the dry bulk ships,accident prevention has certain guiding significance,also played the groundwork for the further research.