Ship Grounding Accident Causation Analysis Based On Bayesian Network

With the rapid development of maritime transport industry, coastal area of China has become one of the busiest areas in global maritime transportation. The increase of port throughput and ship traffic both contribute to the increase of traffic density and more complexity of navigation environment which increase the risk of maritime traffic accidents. As shown in some related statistics of maritime traffic accidents, grounding is one of the main maritime traffic accident.Conduct sensitivity analysis for the factors leading to the aground accidents and to identify the cause chain have became the focus of researching ship aground accident,which is of great significane in improving marine transportation safety.On the basis of previous research findings, firstly, this paper analyzes the factors resulting in ship grounding from human factors, ship factors and environment factors combining with the ship aground accident samples in Chinese coastal waters to identify every aground accident chain and establish a ship ran aground accident Bayesian network. Secondly, ship aground accidents are simulated by Bayesian network model, and 21 ship aground accidents are selected to verify the established model. Meanwhile, combining HUGIN software to identify the cause chain of accidents and describe the computational method of the ship aground accident calculated probability, and sensitivity analysis for the factors leading to the accident aground is conducted. Finally, according to accident causation chain and sensitivity analysis, the critical control points can be found and provide appropriate recommendations to prevent and reduce accidents.In this paper, through the ship grounding accident bayesian network model, it is concluded that in the aspect of human factors, improper outlook and not familiar with channel situation occupies the largest proportion; as for ship factors, steering gear equipment failure has the largest proportion; when considering environmental factors, wind/wave/current waves occupies the largest proportion. Also, the most general cause chain is got as following (Improper outlookâ†'Information inadequateâ†'Inadequate risk estimatesâ†'Not act timelyâ†'Human Factorsâ†'Grounding) as well as the top three factors which influence the sensitivity of the grounding accident:the main engine equipment failure, steering device failure, and improper course design.The research result of the paper offers some valuable guidances to the crew personal and prevent the ship aground accident for ship company and provides reference value for the competent authorities to carry on accident summary as well.