Travel Behavior And Its Carbon Emmission Simulation Under The Background Of Development Pattern Transformation In Shenzhen

Practice has proved that,promoting economic growth through inputs resources and the expansion of extensive development pattern is unsustainable.The previous urban development pattern sink into the bottleneck period in our country,urban development pattern transformation is imminently.As economic pole city of China since the reform policy,Shenzhen need to implement its development pattern from manufacturing industry to occupy top industrial chain.Development pattern transformation means change the pattern of economic development and industrial transformation with upgrading.And this will affect the urban spatial structure and land use layout,bring land use function change and land use intensity change,at the same time,it will need higher quality of the population to live and work in the city,such as higher level of education,higher labor quality and relevant age structure.When development pattern transformation change industrial,built environment and the population quality,it will affect the behavior of urban residents travel,bring the change of the travel mode and travel distance,then affect travel carbon emissions.This paper start from the macro perspective,through the way of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,simulation travel carbon emissions under the background of Shenzhen development pattern transformation.The study review some related basic theory firstly,such as land use and transportation interaction theory,land use factors that influence travel carbon emissions.Then analysis the transformation background and its trend in Shenzhen from four dimensions: economy,population,land use,traffic supply and traffic demand.Research found that,Shenzhen residents' travel mode and mode share ratio will be changed in the future,the increase of the traffic volume and transportation motorization,in particular,an increase in car mode will bring the increase of carbon emissions inevitably.Then based on the analysis results of transformation trend of Shenzhen combined with Shenzhen city overall plan,set 2005 and 2020 two different scenarios in TRANUS.These scenarios including economy,population,land use and transportation for four aspects.Then use TRANUS simulate the vehicle travel volume and the share rate in two scenarios.Predict total carbon emissions in 2020.Study found that: the travel volume in 2020 is about 2.6 times than in 2005,the urban population,job distribution and land use structure have significant impact on vehicle travel;2020 travel structure have some changes,public mode play an more important role in motorized travel;carbon emissions in 2005 and 2020 have different spatial distribution.The study also find that subway transportation is an effective way to reduce traffic emissions through quantitative analysis.