Research On Travel Joint Decision Model Based On Differential Classification

Recently,with the rapid development of urban social economy and the increasing of vehicle ownership,the problems such as hard driving and parking difficulty have become increasingly prominent,and traffic congestion has brought great inconvenience to people’s lives.In fact,as a state of the traffic flow at a specific time and space,traffic congestion is the results of macroscopic emergence of travel demand subject--a large number of individuals’ travel behavior decision.The present researches are based on the homogeneity of the traveler,while ignoring the differences in travel decision behavior caused by the heterogeneity of travelers,and lack of on joint selection combined with travel mode,travel route and departure time.Thus,it is necessary to study the differentiated travel decision behavior and analyze the travel decision behavior of different types of travel groups,to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of transportation demand management strategy.Firstly,the travel decision factors are introduced,heterogeneity of the travelers is elaborated and traveler differentiated classification methods are compared;the basis data and travel decision results are investigated through revealed preference and stated preference survey;then analyze the factors of travel characteristics and travel decision-making behavior on the basis of survey data on the effectiveness and rationality test;at the same time,travelers are classified by using two-step cluster to form differential classification of travelers.Secondly,the travel characteristics and decision characteristics of different travel groups are summarized according to the results of traveler differential classification,and principal component analysis method is used to determine the components of travelers’ reference point in commuter travel;then construct travel time and arrive time reference point function by using uncertainty theory,while risk preference coefficient function are constructed by the link reference point between risk preference coefficient,at the same time,the Bayesian update model is used to update the reference point and the risk preference coefficient function before and after the trip.Thirdly,define the travel joint decision from travel behavior formation and response,the theories and methods of travel decision behavior are compared according to the traveler’s joint decision making process;value function,perceived probability function and weighting function are established to calculate the prospect value of each alternative by the formula in order to describe the possible outcome of each alternative.Finally,the road network of Xi’an is chosen as an example,and the basic data of road network is obtained by investigation;on the basis of the differential classification of travelers,joint travel decision behavior model is constructed based on prospect theory to analyze commute travel decision behavior of different travel groups;the results show that the established model is consistent with the actual results,and can accurately describe the travel decision behavior of different travel groups.