Power Grid Dispatch Based On Load Of Power Customers

Load forecasting is one of the foundations to formulate grid operation plan and carry out operation and management of power grid.The rapid development of current distribution network,the access of distributed power supply and new load,and the advance of power market make the distribution network load characteristics more diversified,which brings more challenges to the operation and management of distribution network.All along,power grid enterprise carry out load forecasting based on historical law and growth trend of power transmission equipment of each voltage level,through fixed management rules set by power grid enterprise to carry out blackout overhaul management,operation scheduling and other grid scheduling management work and so on.At the transmission and distribution level,such dispatching and management based on load analysis of power transmission and distribution equipment basically meets safe and reliable operation of the grid and the overall electricity demand of the entire region.However,at the distribution network level,power supply range of different distribution networks have different user groups,the load characteristics are different,there are temporal and spatial differences in demand for electricity,and the load ratio of individual large customer is high,the power demand fluctuations have great impact on the entire power supply area.The traditional top-down extensive management does not meet the needs of distribution network lean control.Based on load forecasting of large power customers,it is necessary to master the load characteristics of the distribution network and guide the construction and dispatching operation management of the power grid,especially in view of the current development trend of distribution network.Dongguan City,as a manufacturing city,is in the industrial structure upgrading cross-stage,it is a typical sample to analyze electrical load in industrial cities.In this paper,Dongguan Power Grid is selected as the research sample,based on the data from Dongguan Power Supply Bureau measurement automation system and dispatching automation system,combined with the method of field investigation,author of this paper analyzes the load characteristics of Dongguan Power Grid and typical large customers,and the strategy of obtaining user load forecasting curve is proposed.Author of this paper applies the domestic and foreign research results to do theoretic analysis and chooses the reasonable scheme to design the load curve clustering algorithm.The historical load curve of electricity customer is classified into different load patterns,and the load forecasting method using customer power generation load curve is studied,actual data is used to carry out simulation calculus and error analysis.In this paper,targeting for the development trend of distributed power supply,the influence of distributed power supply on the load characteristics of distribution network is analyzed,and the method of electricity load forecasting for distributed power supply is proposed.Author of this paper will also design information exchange platform and business process of power grid enterprise and power customer,and emphatically elaborate the transformation of distribution network management based on power customer load forecasting.