Research On Safety Risk Assessment Methods Of Air Carriers' Maintenance Outsourcing

Outsourced maintenance,the important constituent of air carrier,its issues of safety and quality directly affect the maintenance system safety of air carrier.Starting from its own development needs,air carrier maintenance engineering department urgently needs a set of systematic safety risk supervision content of outsourced maintenance,as well as the effective management techniques of safety risk to reduce the risk level of outsourced maintenance and improve the quality of outsourced maintenance safety.As the key step in the process of safety risk management,the analysis and evaluation of safety risk needs to adopt feasible analysis and evaluation methods to ensure the management techniques of safety risk to implement effectivly.At the same time,the scientific methods of analysis and evaluation also directly affect the effectiveness of risk control.Therefore,this paper puts forward a comprehensive quantitative analysis and evaluation method that suits to the characteristics of outsourced maintenance safety risk,which quantitatively analyzes and comprehensively evaluates the outsourced maintenance safety risk from the perspective of management and global perspective.First of all,by analyzing the workflow of air carrier's maintenance outsourcing,and the related laws,regulations standard and program with outsourced maintenance,combing with the materials of unsafe events of outsourced maintenance and using the cause and effect chart analytic method,it identifies the risk factors from all links of the outsourced processes,such as the supplier evaluation,contract-signing to the implementation of outsourced maintenance etc..These factors which affect the safety quality including four categories: line,base,accessory maintenance and outsourced maintenance engineering management.Then,it builds the index system of outsourced maintenance safety risk with the method of questionnaire investigation and expert discussion,and according to the model of “people,object,environment and management”.Secondly,using fuzzy the group decision model to improve the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)method,it establishes the analysis method of outsourced maintenance safety risk factors basing on the DEMATEL with group decision.Putting the aircarrier's base maintenance as the object and using DEMATEL method with group decision,it gets the weight and the direct relationship of all indexes by computing the centrality and reason of risk indexes to determine the weight of indexes,the causal and consequential risk indexes.And then,it realizes the weight sorting and classification of indexes,so as to verify the validity of the method.Finally,according to the set pair analysis(SPA)and theory of Markov chain,it advances a safety risk dynamic assessment and prediction method basing on SPA-Markov of outsourced maintenance.Putting A air carrier's flight fleet base outsourced maintenance as the object,by adopting this method,it dynamically and synthetically evaluates the safety risk condition of the base outsourced maintenance,and forecasts the future development trend of the safety risk.According to the results of assessment and prediction to put forward the risk control measures,which helps air carrier to master the safety information timely in the process of base outsourced maintenance,find the weak link and improve the safety situation of base outsourced maintenance.