Study On Promotion Countermeasures And Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Shandong Province Based On SPA Coupling Model

Water resource is one of the essential elements for the survival of the region and the ecosystem.It is also an indispensable factor of production in the economic and social development.Shandong province is located in the southeast part of North China Plain,which belongs to the warm temperate continental monsoon climate,water resources distribution is not balanced,the interannual variation is relatively large;the insufficient water resources,coupled with dense population,intensive industries,and the special geographical location determine the economic and social heavy demand for water quantity,water resources and agricultural pressure are large;With the development of industrial,the water pollution was serious,exacerbated the contradiction between water supply and demand imbalance.Therefore,water resource has become one of the biggest limiting factors in economic and social development of Shandong Province,it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Shandong Province,aiming to publish the Shandong Province Economic and social development planning,city planning and utilization of water resources in the long-term planning and so as to provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance.Under the support of National Natural Science Fund Project(41371517),Shandong province science and technology plan(2013GSF11706)project,Graduate Research Innovation fund of Shandong Normal University(SCX201627),Based on the analysis of domestic and international water resources carrying capacity,water footprint on the literature,summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various methods,to find a breakthrough in this research,puting forward a water resources carrying capacity system based on water footprint.Based on the CROPWAT software to calculate the virtual water content of agriculture in Shandong province and in 2014 year of 17 cities,and 2005-2014 year of Shandong province,the agricultural water structure is calculated and analyzed,in order to realize the time and space axis evaluation of Water Footprint;on this basis,the fusion of water footprint calculation results,combined with the traditional indicators of real water,construction of carrying capacity the comprehensive evaluation index system of new water resources,the introduction of SPA-VFS(set of variable fuzzy coupling)evaluation model,subjective and objective weighting method,and clustering analysis method are applied in Shandong province for 10 years and in 2014 year of 17 the city,in order to realize the time and space axis evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.The results show that the 2005-2014 water resources carrying capacity in Shandong Province comprehensive score increased gradually,optimizing water resources allocation model of water resources utilization,water resources can be more fully utilized,water resources utilization efficiency increased,but the ecological environment factor is not in the process of economic development seriously,and the proportion of agricultural water is still large,blue water,green water ratio in the regional unbalance phenomenon still exists.A score of 17 indicates that the carrying capacity,water resources,spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation on water resources carrying capacity influence,water resources in developed coastal areas in East Shandong bearing capacity is higher,northwest,southwest agricultural production base for agriculture than the major water resource utilization situation,water resources along the Jiaoji Railway over bearing,the Yellow River delta the use of water resources pressure.Finally,based on the analysis of water footprint and water resources carrying capacity,the paper puts forward the countermeasures to improve the water resources carrying capacity.