Study On Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Virtual Water

Water resource is indispensable to the survival of mankind’s basic natural resources, it is a limited resource of has irreplaceable. Consumption of water resources of human life, the industry and agriculture production is accompanied by social development and progress in a rapid increase in. At the same time water resources quantity but due to excessive exploitation and destruction of the ecological environment is in steep decline, between the imbalance between will of water resources system, social development and human survival, produced great influence.Jilin Province as one of the provinces of the shortage of water resources, solve has caused Volkswagen, a wide range of social cognition of shortage of water resources and protection problems become the primary task and on water resources carrying capacity were evaluated with the significance of the times. Of water resources in Jilin Province carrying capacity analysis, for the area of the macro-control of water resources and social development planning provides effective basis and can optimize the rational allocation of water resources, with important practical significance and theoretical support of social, economic, natural and human harmony sustainable development mode.This paper in Jilin Province as the research object were chosen reflect population, society, nature and economy of 11 factors:farmland irrigation rate, water resources development utilization degree, per capita quantity of the utilizable water resources, water resources per capita, GDP per capita, water resources utilization rate, per capita consumption of water, water supply module, vegetation coverage, ecological water demand rate, the water producing coefficient as the evaluation index set, using real coded accelerating genetic algorithm to optimize the projection direction of projection pursuit classification model, analyzes the bearing capacity of water resources in Jilin Province around the city administrative region, compares the bearing capacity of each administrative area. By using the "pressure state response" model. the population, economy and ecological environment of water resources in Jilin province were quantitatively analyzed. As an invisible water, virtual water is considered to enter the water resources system of Jilin Province, and analyzes the change of water resources carrying capacity under the condition of virtual water.The research results of this paper are:(1) Jilin province need to source for forecasting water in Jilin Province water quota forecast forecast 2020 the total amount of water required for 164.23 billion m3, total including domestic water demand for 9.11 billion m3, production water demand for 151.57 billion m3 of ecological need water for 3.58 billion m3; forecast in 2030 total water demand for 179.71 billion m3, total including 11.50 million m3 of domestic water demand,163.25 billion m3 is production water demand and 4.96 billion m3 remaining is the ecological water requirement. (2) in Jilin province all prefecture level administrative region water resources carrying capacity according to from high to low order as follows:Baishan City can carrying of water resources capacity> Korean Autonomous Prefecture City carrying capacity> Jilin carrying ability> Tonghua carrying capacity> Liaoyuan City carrying capacity> Changchun City carrying ability> Siping City carrying capacity> Baicheng City carrying capacity> Songyuan city carrying capacity, and in the analysis of eleven evaluation factors and water resources use rate of Jilin province level administrative region water resources carrying ability with maximum. (3) the establishment of the PSR model analysis, expected 2020 in Jilin Province has the water resources to load of the population was 2857 million people, with the amount of water resources in the burden of GDP is 17863.25 billion yuan, with the amount of water resources is able to bear the 2057km2 the ecological environment of the area; expected load of the population was 2966 million people, with the amount of water resources in the burden of GDP is 33958.7 billion yuan, with the amount of water resources is able to bear the 2139km2 ecological environment area of Jilin Province by 2030 water resources can. For quantitative analysis of the virtual water content (4) The virtual water content of Jilin Province of agricultural and livestock products, industrial products were subjected to quantitative analysis by calculating the virtual aquatic production in Jilin Province "blue water" transformation for the different scenarios of other industrial and living water in proportion, it is concluded that the virtual water strategy implementation of water resources in Jilin Province bearing capacity influence.