Design And Evaluation Of Wannianzha Second-line Ship Lock

Inland water transportation plays an important role in the transportation system in our country.The grand canal is an important channel linking the north and south.So it is eventful to the construction of inland water transportation network.Ship lock is an important infrastructure in the inland water transportation route.It is related to the transportation capacity of the route.The capacity of Wannianzha ship lock in the grand canal has reached saturation.So it is necessary to build the second-line ship lock.Project feasibility study is an essential part of ship lock construction.This paper studied the ship lock construction scale measurement and risk evaluation of Wannianzha second-line ship lock project.The ship lock freight volume forecast is the foundation of construction scale measurement.This paper combined the quantitative prediction and qualitative correction.The result of two model have been considered.The quantitative prediction result came from GM model and regression analysis model.After analyzing the influence of the related policy planning,the quantitative prediction result is corrected.It is the final result of second-line ship lock freight volume forecasting.According to the results of prediction,referring to the relevant specification,the second-line ship lock construction scale can be calculating.In 2020 and 2030,it is expected that the freight volume of Wannianzha second-line ship lock will reach 42.35 million tons and 49.45 million tons and when the one-way with capacity is 29 million tons,it can meet the requirements of future years.Risk evaluation is able to analyze the risk the project will face in the future.So it can guide how to formulate risk prevention plan to ensure project running smoothly.But in practice,risk evaluation too much depends on the qualitative analysis so that theoretical,scientific has a certain lack.In order to solve this problem,this paper analyzed the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to the applicability of the risk evaluation of second-line lock project.This method can well complete the risk evaluation both in the point of method and the characteristics of the problem.Using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate Wannianzha second-line ship lock project's risk in two aspects of engineering project risk and the risk of social stability.The project risk evaluation results showed that project will face a general risk and it will not affect the feasibility of the project.