Simulation Research Of Water Emission Trading Mechanism In Water Resource Supply Chain Based On Evolutionary Game

Water crisis is becoming a worldwide problem and the solution is no longer finding new supply but improving the efficiency of current using.One promising way is nurturing water emission trading to direct the resource turning from low efficiency part to the high efficiency part.However,low market participation level impedes its development.The dissertation develops an evolutionary game model of two enterprise populations' dynamics and stability in the decision-making behavior process from the perspective of analyzing the characteristics of water resource supply chain.Due to different perceived value of resource,the discussion segments enterprises as two populations with same strategy set,i.e.choosing H strategy(bidding for permit)and D strategy(not bidding).Similarly,external factors are simplified according to three categories: -bidding related cost,-price and -penalty.Participation increase equals reaching point(H,H)in the model and is treated as an evolutionarily stable strategy(ESS).Then further verify the model through System Dynamics simulation on AnyLogic and summarizing the findings as follow:(1)To reach ESS more quickly,we need to minimize the bidding related cost and price ,but regulate the heavy penalty ;(2)An ESS can be significantly transformed,such as from(D,D)to(H,H)by regulating , and accordingly;(3)The initial choice of strategy is essential to the final result;(4)If participation seems stable but unsatisfying,it is important to check whether it is a saddle point and adjust external factors accordingly.The innovation of this research is considering the water resource supply chain as a whole and taking one single point of nurturing market into consideration as well.The application of evolutionary game theory on nurturing market under water resource supply chain is new attempt and there is not much related study on that.The dissertation provides a new perspective for further relative study.The research building evolution game model of behavior of enterprises and co-relations based on analysis of similarity and feasibility between water resource supply chain and evolutionary game theory.The findings benefit both water management practice and further research.