| The implementation and assessment of the strictest water resources management system put forward stringent requirements for water consumption control in various regions of China.However,for a region,there are many factors influencing the change of water consumption,and the impact of the mechanism is very complex.This paper studies the influencing factors of agricultural water consumption,industrial water consumption,residential water consumption,and urban public water consumption from qualitative and quantitative aspects,which is of great significance to clarify the complex relationship between influencing factors and water consumption.On this basis,this paper predict the four types of water consumption and the total water consumption from 2016 to 2018,which provides a reference for water resources management department to allocate water resources reasonably.The analysis of the water consumption control approaches provides a reference for the effective implementation of the strictest water resources management system.Shanghai as one of the first batch of pilot provinces of the strictest water resources management system,to carry out the implementation of the system earlier.In the implementation and assessment of the strictest water resources management work,Shanghai has accumulated some experience.As the water resources measurement,the water resources management and the water resources statistical work in Shanghai are more perfect,and the data of water resources are more rich and reliable,so this paper chose Shanghai as the research area.This paper based on the assessment and evaluation of Shanghai under the strictest water resources management system in the years of 2013,2014 and 2015,studied the influencing factors and driving of agricultural water consumption(M1),industrial water consumption(M2),residential water consumption(M3)and urban public water consumption(M4).The quantifiable influencing factors were divided into positive or negative driving influence factors,and the qualitative influencing factors were divided into promote the reduction of water consumption or promote the increased of water consumption.Then,according to the actual situation of four types of water consumption in Shanghai and the relevant research experience,studied the influence mechanism of 10 influencing factors of agricultural water consumption,6 influencing factors of industrial water consumption,9 influencing factors of residential water consumption,4 influencing factors of urban public water consumption.On the basis of these,the grey correlation analysis method was used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of four types of water consumption in 2010-2015,the LMDI decomposition method was used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of the total water consumption.Based on the above research,the key influencing factors of four types of water consumption and the total water consumption were selected.Using the key influencing factors,this paper based on the BP neural network model to predict the four types of water consumption and the total water consumption of the years of 2016,2017,and 2018.In the context of the implementation of the strictest water resources management system,the amount of total water consumption has been basically controlled,the agricultural water consumption has remained stable,the industrial water consumption has been declining continuously,the residential water consumption and the urban public water consumption have been increasing.To further reduce the total amount of water of Shanghai,should be in many ways.Such as increasing the area of water-saving irrigation,optimizing the agricultural industry structure,increasing the use of natural rainfall and river water,strengthening the construction of farmland water conservancy,improving the measurement management of agricultural water intake;optimizing industrial structure,developing industrial water reuse technology,strengthening industrial water quota management;Control the rapid growth of population,improve the installation rate of water-saving living utensils,increase water conservation publicity,improve water conservation awareness;control service industry water,improve the efficiency of urban green water,improve the road cleaning equipment. |
