The Pilotage Risk Assessment Of Very Large Ships In Tianjin Port

With the further development of Tianjin Port,port density increases and the number of very large ships grows largely.Both the manipulation feature of very large ships and typical restricted waters of Tianjin Port set great challenge to Tianjin Port pilot manipulation of very large ships.Improper manipulation of very large ships can cause marine accident,which will lead to huge economic loss,even irreparable impact to marine ecology.Therefore,it becomes a significant issue to ensure the security of piloting very large ships.The processing of piloting very large ships is affected by lots of factors,such as human,ship,environment and management.However,these factors and indicators are hard to get,the uncertainty and ambiguity of which influence the accuracy of piloting risk evaluation.Based on D-S theory,a piloting risk evaluation model is built to simplify the evaluation process and improve the accuracy under deficient data,ambiguity information and great uncertainty.Considering navigation environment features of Tianjin Port,manipulating features of very large ships and individual working experience,we got risk indicators which can affect very large ships piloting,and built comprehensive risk evaluation system;besides,risk indicators are quantified and the weight is defined through expert investigation and Tianjin Port navigation information;what's more,a piloting risk evaluation model is built based on D-S theory,and take Tianjin Port as an example to calculate a comprehensive risk value;at last,some suggestions are made basing on the risk value,together with author's personal experience.