Study On The Ship Pilotage Risk Based On EW-SPA

With the presenting national strategies of “The Belt and Road” and “Traffic Power”,the development of China's water transportation is facing more opportunities as well as more challenges.The development strategy of the “Yangtze Economic Zone” also attracts more attention to the development of the shipping industry in the Yangtze River.As the first man of national image on water,pilot represents the level of our country's nautical technology.Meanwhile,pilotage plays an important role in safeguarding state sovereignty and ensuring the safety of ship's navigation.The increasing number and trend of large-scale ships have put forward higher requirements for the pilotage services.It is significant to study the risk of pilotage to ensure navigation safety and improve management level.The framework of the thesis is mainly composed of three parts: establishing a risk evaluation index system,building a risk assessment model and preventing and predicting risk.Firstly,the index system of pilotage risk assessment is established.From the perspective of risk classification of human,ship,environment and management,the risk factors for pilotage are preliminarily outlined.Using the risk coupling method(N-K model)and the R language to deal with the pilotage reports,the index system of pilotage risk assessment is set up.The Jiangsu section of Yangtze River is used as an example and 188 reports of pilotage accidents are collected.A risk index system of two-level structure is formed by above methods,which includes 4 first-level indicators and 27 second-level indicators.Secondly,the risk evaluation model is constructed.A model of pilotage risk assessment is set up by integrating the methods of evidence weight and set pair analysis.And a software for pilotage risk assessment is developed as well.To determine the weight of each risk index by the frequencies of feature items in the pilotage reports,the weight of the risk evaluation index is objectively determined.Nine waterways of Jiangsu section in Yangtze River are selected to apply the model and software.The effectiveness of the evaluation model is verified by comparing the evaluation results with the number of pilotage accidents during 2006 to 2016.Lastly,risk control measures are proposed and pilotage accidents are predicted.Based on the idea of multiple attribute decision making(MADM),combining triangular fuzzy number with decision making trial and evaluation laboratory,the internal correlation structure of risk indexes is determined.The importance of each index is sorted by utilizing the analytic network process(ANP),and the countermeasures are put forward to prevent and control the risks.To judge the validity of risk control measures,autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)is used to predict pilotage accidents.The decision making model is applied to the Jiangsu section of Yangtze River,and 11 important indexes are screened out by considering both index weight and importance ranking results.The prevention and control measures of pilotage risk are also formulated.Besides,the accident prediction model is applied to predict the pilotage accidents in Jiangsu section of Yangtze River.Risk assessment is an important part of pilotage.In the thesis,scientific research has been carried out on the selection of pilotage risk index,risk assessment,index importance ranking and accident prediction.The studies can enrich the research theory of pilotage risk and have practical guiding significance to the pilotage work.