| The nuclear as a clean, efficient, safe, energy provides a great help to alleviate the energy crisis. China is a country with big energy consuming, always in vigorously developing nuclear power. Until January 1, 2016, China input commercial operation of nuclear power generating units approaches total of 30, with a total installed capacity of26489 MWe, and China’s expected total installed capacity will reach58 GWe by 2020. By 2030 installed capacity could reach 150 GWe and then will become the world’s third largest nuclear power countries. In this context, the safety issue of nuclear power became the primary problem of the development of nuclear power, in the event of a nuclear accident early emergency is the last barrier of the nuclear safety, how to carry out emergency decision-making has become an inevitable problem.Due to the complexity and uncertainty of nuclear accident emergency decision, a single person can’t solve such a large-scale decision problem. Thus in this dissertation, the multi criteria group decision theory is introduced into the early decision of nuclear accidents,mainly research contents include:Multiple criteria decision making problems with the attribute values are generally includes qualitative and quantitative criteria and different criteria always represented by different forms of data type(such as precise value, interval value, linguistic value). These data is often vague and subjective, the decision maker’s optimistic degree should be considered, and transform the fuzzy data into precise value so that make the decision matrix was more intuitive and clear.In group decision making, first a decision model is build based on utility function to calculate each decision maker’s evaluation value of each alternative. The judgment matrix of the consistency between the individual and group is constructed followed to solve the consistency problem in order to achieve the information interaction and modification.On the improvement of criteria weights calculation in multi-attribute group decision-making, the original subjective empowerment extended reliability properties, the degree of attention and the properties of the three aspects of comprehensive weight. The psychological threshold of decision makers and psychological expectations are taken into account,assuming that the decision maker are "limited rational people", and prospect value is calculated with prospect theory. Considering the correlation between criteria, that decision criteria are not independent of each other, so the fuzzy integration is carried out. But fuzzy integralapplication is too complex, thus, the using of Choquet integral simplified by transformation.At last an example is given to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. |
