Study On The Evaluation And Prediction Model Of The SHSF Effect On The FCS In Project Area

The substituting small hydropower for fuel (SHSF) is an important measure of protecting the construction achievements of returning farmland to forest and natural forest and guarantee of farmers’ living in remote mountainous areas. This paper takes the Guizhou Qiandongnan fujang SHSF project area as the study object, aiming at the feasibility problem of the SHSF project, presented the evaluation strategy of multi targets evaluation index system, established the comprehensive evaluation model by using the multistage intuitionistic fuzzy, which considered the influence of pilot plant on social benefit, economic benefits, energy efficiency and ecological benefits in the project area, eliminated the uncertainty due to individual differences of experts in evaluation results. The research shows that the evaluation result is consistent with the actual situation according to this evaluation index system and model, providing an effective way for the scientific planning and reasonable location of SHSF project late.For the prediction of SHSF project area in the role of ecological protection, we constructed the SARIMA-FCS model on the continuous observation data of 2005-2015, and passed the white noise test on model. The SARIMA-FCS model simulates the dynamic changes of the Masson Pine and Cypress plantation biomass and soil organic carbon density in the input time. The results showed that the Masson Pine and Cypress plantation biomass and soil organic carbon density in the project area was significantly higher than the control outside, and maintained a stable growth trend. The control plantation outside declines faster at first and then tends to be gentle, its soil organic carbon density in the early has a small range growth and then being a declining trend, further shows that the SHSF plays an important role in the forest ecological protection.This paper designed and implemented the SHSF project evaluation and prediction system using the jQuery, MVC framework, SSH framework and database technology. The system provided a convenient, efficient and safe management of all kinds of data in the project area, achieved a comprehensive evaluation of the feasibility to the SHSF address selection and realized the forecast of Masson Pine and Cypress plantation biomass and soil organic carbon density.