Embodied Carbon Imbalance In China’s Trade And Carbon Saving Effect Of Foreign Trade Structure Adjustment

With the continuous development of economy,environmental pollution is becoming increasingly serious,climate change and greenhouse effect has become an important global environmental problem.How to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and coordinate the contradiction between economic development and the environment has become the top priority of global economic development and social progress.In order to alleviate the increasingly serious situation of global climate change,and better limit greenhouse gas emissions,the international community has formulated the Kyoto Protocol,Paris roadmap,Copenhagen agreement and other environmental agreements.These treaties,however,share a common ground.They are mainly based on territorial responsibility to calculate greenhouse gas emissions,using the principle of "production responsibility".Prior to producer based reduction responsibility sharing mechanism,how to reduce carbon emissions embodied in exports,changes in import and export trade imbalance in the current situation of the carbon emissions embodied in export trade,sustainable development path of low carbon,is Chinese problems to be solved.In this paper,the input-output model and the input-output table in 2007 and 2012 are used,combine China’s foreign trade Embodied Carbon with foreign trade structure,analysis of the relationship between China’s foreign trade structure and Embodied Carbon,this paper uses the optimization model to prove the feasibility of reducing the implied carbon outflow in foreign trade by adjusting the structure of China’s foreign trade.The input-output table presented in China is a competitive input-output table,which does not distinguish between imported products and domestic products.Since China is a big country of processing trade,if it is calculated directly with the final product,it will overestimate the implied carbon content of China’s export trade,there is a big deviation;And in the import trade,a part of imported products are used as raw materials and processing products for export products.When calculating the implied carbon in import trade,the influence of imported products should be excluded.Based on the academic research results,this paper lists the implicit carbon measurement models of different import and export processing modes,the advantages and disadvantages of these methods are also analyzed.Finally,this paper selects the Leontief inverse matrix with diagonal matrix representation of domestic production proportion,eliminating the influence of intermediate flow matrix of imported products.In addition,in order to reduce the embodied carbon content of the export trade under the condition of a country’s foreign trade scale,it can be realized by reducing the export share of the high carbon emission sector and increasing the export ratio of the low emission sector;In order to increase the implicit carbon content of import trade,we can increase the proportion of imports of high carbon emissions,and reduce the import of low carbon emissions,so as to build the implicit carbon minimum value model of export trade and the implicit carbon maximum model of import trade.The results show that,first of all,from the overall trend,the full carbon emission coefficient of China’s departments from 2007 to 2012 showed a significant downward trend,indicating that the policy of energy saving and emission reduction has made remarkable achievements in China.From the point of view of departments,the departments with higher direct carbon emission coefficient mostly belong to high energy consuming and resource intensive sectors;The direct carbon emission coefficient accounts for a large proportion of the total carbon emission coefficient,and most sectors are in the upstream of the national economic industry chain,while the sectors with higher indirect carbon emission coefficient belong to the final demand industry;The indirect carbon emission coefficient of most departments of our country should be bigger than the direct carbon emission coefficient,which indicates that the industry of our country is relatively independent of the existence of a link between the industry,between the Department and the Department of high dependence on trade,is relatively frequent.From the perspective of the complete carbon emissions of import and export trade,the dynamics of carbon emission intensity of all sectors of China’s import and export trade show a significant downward trend;Horizontal comparison,completely different departments China and carbon export import trade emission intensity differences,and between the same department of import and export trade carbon emission intensity difference is small,most of the departments of export trade carbon emission strength is smaller than the complete carbon emission intensity of import trade;The import and export trade total carbon emission intensity and the simple average weighted average value compared to that of China’s import structure is not conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions,the export trade structure is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions,but still need to be further optimized.From the input and output of the carbon angle analysis,export trade import and export trade is a dynamic and rising carbon input departments on the characteristics of a high degree,the net carbon output imbalance degree shows the characteristics and differences of large scale decline in the foreign trade sector,China’s net carbon export in China-Finally,the optimization model is simulated and analyzed the structure,China’s imports of Embodied Carbon amount reaches the maximum export Embodied Carbon quantity minimum through foreign trade structure adjustment turn China into a net importer of carbon.The innovation of this paper is mainly based on the following three points,First,the input-output table is improved to obtain more accurate implicit carbon data;Secondly,the foreign trade structure adjustment,many scholars at home and abroad have carried on the research to the Chinese carbon emissions,but the existing research has little to do with the adjustment of the foreign trade structure and reduce China’s foreign trade Embodied Carbon combination;Finally,for each department carbon calculation is comprehensive,the departments of carbon dioxide emissions of eight kinds of fossil energy and the power of these nine kinds of energy used in the production of calculation of various departments,can get relatively accurate energy consumption value.By adjusting the trade structure of foreign trade,the purpose of carbon reduction in trade activities is achieved,Changing the current situation of China’s implied carbon imbalance is of guiding significance for China to build an environment-friendly and sustainable development of modern economic model.However,due to the limited time,data sources and personal ability,this article divides all industries into 24 industries,and does not further divide the industry into more detailed.